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Gold and silver prices, their stocks and market fear gauges: Testing fractional cointegration using a robust approach

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  • Yaya, OlaOluwa S.
  • Vo, Xuan Vinh
  • Olayinka, Hammed A.

Abstract

The present paper investigates the long-run relationships between daily prices, stocks and fear gauges of gold and silver by employing an updated fractional cointegrating framework, that is, the Fractional Cointegrating Vector Autoregression (FCVAR). The initial unit root tests results indicate that the series are I(d)s with values of d around 1 in all cases, and these are homogenous in the paired cointegrating series. Evidence of cointegration is found in the three pairs (prices, stocks and market gauge indices), while these cointegrations are only time-varying in the case of market gauge indices for the commodities. The fact that cointegration exists in prices and stocks of gold and silver implies the possibility that gold and silver prices and stocks can interchangeably be used to access the performances of the commodity markets, with the recommendation that the two commodities are not to be traded in the same portfolio.

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  • Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Olayinka, Hammed A., 2021. "Gold and silver prices, their stocks and market fear gauges: Testing fractional cointegration using a robust approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721000623
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102045
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    1. Cui, Moyang & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wisetsri, Worakamol & Mabrouk, Fatma & Muda, Iskandar & Li, Zeyun & Hassan, Marria, 2023. "Do oil, gold and metallic price volatilities prove gold as a safe haven during COVID-19 pandemic? Novel evidence from COVID-19 data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adesina, Oluwaseun A. & Alobaloke, Kafayat A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Time-variation between metal commodities and oil, and the impact of oil shocks: GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS analyses," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Kumar, Suresh & Choudhary, Sangita & Singh, Gurcharan & Singhal, Shelly, 2021. "Crude oil, gold, natural gas, exchange rate and indian stock market: Evidence from the asymmetric nonlinear ARDL model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Lukman, Adewale F. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Persistence and volatility spillovers of bitcoin price to gold and silver prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Esperanza García-Gonzalo & Paulino José García-Nieto & Gregorio Fidalgo Valverde & Pedro Riesgo Fernández & Fernando Sánchez Lasheras & Sergio Luis Suárez Gómez, 2024. "Hybrid DE-Optimized GPR and NARX/SVR Models for Forecasting Gold Spot Prices: A Case Study of the Global Commodities Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional cointegration; FCVAR; Gold; Silver; Mean reversion; Market fear gauges;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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