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Co-existence of stochastic and chaotic behaviour in the copper price time series

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  • Mastroeni, Loretta
  • Vellucci, Pierluigi
  • Naldi, Maurizio

Abstract

The possible scarcity of copper (and the likely resulting pressure on prices) is an issue of concern, especially in the light of its importance for the ever growing networking industry. Also for that reason, copper is the nonferrous metal most traded in the markets. Therefore, assessing the nature of its price fluctuations is an important task. Several papers have been devoted to analysing the characteristics of the time series of copper prices, especially for the purpose of predicting its future behaviour. The field of approaches can be divided roughly equally between those adopting a stochastic model and those opting for a deterministic nonlinear (chaotic) model. Nevertheless, while papers employing the stochastic paradigm have completely ignored the presence of chaotic features, at the same time papers recognizing the chaotic paradigm have neglected the presence of noise.The purpose of this paper is to investigate copper price behaviour in the CMX, considering a very long time series and adopting estimation methods that provide the coexistence of stochastic and chaotic features. We find that: a) the presence of noise is very significant (amounting to more than a quarter of the average signal value), as well as the presence of chaotic features; b) intermittency is present, which may be indicative of a bubble-related value that emerged without any fundamental cause.

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  • Mastroeni, Loretta & Vellucci, Pierluigi & Naldi, Maurizio, 2018. "Co-existence of stochastic and chaotic behaviour in the copper price time series," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 295-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:295-302
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.05.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Loretta Mastroeni & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2022. "Construction of an SDE Model from Intraday Copper Futures Prices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Zhu, Haotian & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Benedetto, Francesco & Mastroeni, Loretta & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2020. "Does OVX affect WTI and Brent oil spot variance? Evidence from an entropy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2024. "Studying the impact of fluctuations, spikes and rare events in time series through a wavelet entropy predictability measure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 641(C).
    8. Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "A critique of financial neoliberalism: a perspective combining multidisciplinary methods and commodity markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-11, March.
    9. Zheng, Shuxian & Tan, Zhanglu & Xing, Wanli & Zhou, Xuanru & Zhao, Pei & Yin, Xiuqi & Hu, Han, 2022. "A comparative exploration of the chaotic characteristics of Chinese and international copper futures prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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