IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v46y2024i1p1-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Productivity convergence in international trade: The role of industrial-based policies

Author

Listed:
  • Nazlioglu, Saban
  • Huseyni, İbrahim
  • Tunc, Ahmet
  • Payne, James E.

Abstract

The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis implies divergence in the terms of trade between developing and developed countries but does not eliminate the possibility of convergence if productivity in developing countries’ exports sufficiently improves. This study constructs a new and unique export sophistication dataset for the productivity of high-technology export products to examine convergence behavior of developed and emerging market countries. Relative and weak σ-convergence tests reveal overall productivity divergence in international trade. However, there are convergence clubs whereby income, R&D expenditures, foreign direct investment, and educational expenditures yield similar effects on the convergence club formation in both developed and emerging market countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazlioglu, Saban & Huseyni, İbrahim & Tunc, Ahmet & Payne, James E., 2024. "Productivity convergence in international trade: The role of industrial-based policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823001333
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tripathi, Janhavi Shankar, 2023. "Trade-growth nexus: A study of G20 countries using simultaneous equations model with dynamic policy simulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 806-816.
    2. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    3. James E. Payne & James W. Saunoris & Saban Nazlioglu & Cagin Karul, 2023. "The convergence dynamics of economic freedom across U.S. states," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1216-1241, April.
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    7. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    8. Nazlioglu, Saban & Kassouri, Yacouba & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Soytas, Ugur, 2022. "Convergence of oil consumption: A historical perspective with new concepts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2009. "Economic transition and growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1153-1185.
    11. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "The Lessons of East Asian Development: An Overview," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(3), pages 273-290, Supplemen.
    12. Das, Gouranga Gopal, 2015. "Why some countries are slow in acquiring new technologies? A model of trade-led diffusion and absorption," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 65-91.
    13. Reppas, Panayiotis A. & Christopoulos, Dimitris K., 2005. "The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 929-940, November.
    14. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    15. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    16. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    17. Konrad Lyncker & Rasmus Thoennessen, 2017. "Regional club convergence in the EU: evidence from a panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 525-553, March.
    18. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    19. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
    20. Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1991. "Manufactured exports of developing countries and their terms of trade since 1965," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 333-340, April.
    21. Haiyun Liu & Xuefeng Wang, 2022. "Spillover Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Export Sophistication: Evidence from Chinese Domestic Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(11), pages 2393-2408, November.
    22. Trlaković, Jelena & Despotović, Danijela & Ristić, Lela, 2018. "Impact of technology-intensive exports on GDP of Western Balkan Countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 1038-1049.
    23. Weili Zhang & Wei Xu & Xiaoye Wang, 2019. "Regional convergence clubs in China: identification and conditioning factors," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(2), pages 327-350, April.
    24. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    25. Zhu, Shujin & Fu, Xiaolan, 2013. "Drivers of Export Upgrading," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 221-233.
    26. Anwar, Sajid & Sun, Sizhong, 2018. "Foreign direct investment and export quality upgrading in China's manufacturing sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 289-298.
    27. Su, Xiaoyan & Anwar, Sajid & Zhou, Ying & Tang, Xuan, 2020. "Services trade restrictiveness and manufacturing export sophistication," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    28. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    29. Asier Minondo, 2010. "Exports' quality-adjusted productivity and economic growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 257-287.
    30. Banerjee, Tannista & Nayak, Arnab, 2017. "Multinational investments and product sophistication," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 157-163.
    31. Shouvik Chakraborty & Prabirjit Sarkar, 2020. "From The Classical Economists To Empiricists: A Review Of The Terms Of Trade Controversy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1133, December.
    32. Hans Singer, 1999. "Beyond terms of trade-convergence and divergence," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 911-916.
    33. Kerui Du, 2017. "Econometric convergence test and club clustering using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(4), pages 882-900, December.
    34. James E. Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Regional tourism convergence: a disaggregated analysis of Croatia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(52), pages 6149-6169, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haini, Hazwan & Wei Loon, Pang & Li Li, Pang, 2023. "Can export diversification promote export upgrading? Evidence from an oil-dependent economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2022. "What Drives the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Development," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1944-1961, September.
    3. Burak Sencer Atasoy, 2021. "The determinants of export sophistication: Does digitalization matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5135-5159, October.
    4. Belloc, Ignacio, 2024. "Family house prices in the US: Convergence clubs by county (1975-2022)," MPRA Paper 121487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    6. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Villani, Ilaria, 2021. "Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2022. "Convergence in retail gasoline prices: insights from Canadian cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(1), pages 207-228, February.
    8. Matysiak, George & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2019. "A Panel Analysis of Polish Regional Cities Residential Price Convergence in the Primary Market," MPRA Paper 94660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ledesma-Cuenca, Ana & Montañés, Antonio & Simón-Fernández, María Blanca, 2022. "Disparities in premature mortality: Evidence for the OECD countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    10. Dang Luu Hai, 2021. "Aid for trade and export sophistication in recipient countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 530-548, May.
    11. Anang Budi Gunawan & Carlos Mendez & Shigeru Otsubo, 2021. "Provincial income convergence clubs in Indonesia: Identification and conditioning factors," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2540-2575, December.
    12. Holmes, Mark J. & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2019. "Interest rate convergence across maturities: Evidence from bank data in an emerging market economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 57-70.
    13. Karishma Banga, 2022. "Digital Technologies and Product Upgrading in Global Value Chains: Empirical Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 77-102, February.
    14. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2019. "Property heterogeneity and convergence club formation among local house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Uğur Ursavaş & Carlos Mendez, 2023. "Regional income convergence and conditioning factors in Turkey: revisiting the role of spatial dependence and neighbor effects," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(2), pages 363-389, October.
    16. Song Zhang & Chunlai Chen, 2020. "Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Facilitate China's Export Upgrading?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(5), pages 64-89, September.
    17. Lectard, Pauline, 2023. "Manufacturing exports: A virtuous circle of industrialization or a lock-in development pattern? The case of the machinery and textiles sectors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 319-338.
    18. Chletsos, Michael & Roupakias, Stelios, 2019. "Immigration and the economic performance of countries," MPRA Paper 94994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Ben Saad, Myriam & Brahim, Mariem & Schaffar, Alexandra & Guesmi, Khaled & Ben Saad, Rym, 2023. "Economic complexity, diversification and economic development: The strategic factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Yuanyuan Cai & Yingming Zhu & Marco Helbich, 2022. "Club convergence of regional housing prices in China: evidence from 70 major Cities," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 69(1), pages 33-55, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; Productivity; Export sophistication; High technology; Convergence; Panel data; Common factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B17 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:1:p:1-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.