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Seasonal patterns of global oil consumption: Implications for long term energy policy

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  • Inchauspe, Julian
  • Li, Jun
  • Park, Jason

Abstract

The dynamic evolution of the seasonal patterns in world oil consumption is dictated by complex interactions between regional consumers. Although this global pattern was stable and predictable in the past, recently it has undergone dramatic changes that have not been well understood yet. This paper contributes to literature on oil consumption behaviours by analysing the counter-balance of ‘coincident’ and ‘counter-directional’ regional seasonal patterns that have time-varying amplitude relative to their longer-term trends. It is shown that the recent global seasonal changes have been mainly driven by long-run demand trends in fast-growing emerging markets and, to a lesser extent, by idiosyncratic changes in regions’ seasonal amplitude. Our analysis is relevant to energy policy in general as both global and regional oil consumption seasonality have important implications for oil pricing, investment decisions, hedging, geopolitics and energy security.

Suggested Citation

  • Inchauspe, Julian & Li, Jun & Park, Jason, 2020. "Seasonal patterns of global oil consumption: Implications for long term energy policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 536-556.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:42:y:2020:i:3:p:536-556
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Andrea Bollino & Philipp Galkin, 2021. "Energy Security and Portfolio Diversification: Conventional and Novel Perspectives," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Martin Beer & Radim Rybár & Jana Rybárová & Andrea Seňová & Vojtech Ferencz, 2021. "Numerical Analysis of Concentrated Solar Heaters for Segmented Heat Accumulators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Loureiro, Jose Roberto & Inchauspe, Julian & Aguilera, Roberto F., 2023. "World regional natural gas prices: Convergence, divergence or what? New evidence," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Seasonality; Oil consumption; Regional and global pattern; Energy policy; Discrete wavelet transformation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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