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Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice

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  • Zhang, Yin
  • Wan, Guanghua

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós [Hoffmaister, A. W., & Roldós, J. E. (2001). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries: Brazil and Korea. Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, 213-239] and Prasad [Prasad, E.S. (1999). International trade and the business cycle. Economic Journal, 109, 588-606]. The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985-2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined--the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade balance are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 505-521.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:505-521
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    2. Kang-Soek Lee, 2011. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    4. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Chengjun Shi & Jing Li, 2017. "Does dollar-pegging matter? A closer look at US trade deficits with China and Germany," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 451-472, May.
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    7. Zhibai, Zhang, 2012. "RMB Undervaluation and Appreciation," MPRA Paper 40978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yang, Jun & Zhang, Wei & Tokgoz, Simla, 2013. "Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1029-1042.

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