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What determines European real exchange rates?

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  • Martin Berka
  • Michael B. Devereux

Abstract

We study a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices of a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries. We find that there is a substantial and non-diminishing deviation from PPP at all levels of aggregation, even among eurozone members. However, real exchange rates are very closely tied to relative GDP per capita within Europe, both across countries and over time. This relationship is highly robust at all levels of aggregation. We construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most (but not all) countries there is a very close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux, 2010. "What determines European real exchange rates?," CAMA Working Papers 2010-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-17
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    Cited by:

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    2. Arshian Sharif, Sahar Afshan, 2016. "Tourism Development and Real Effective Exchange Rate Revisited by Wavelet based Analysis: Evidence from France," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 101-118, October.
    3. Zvi Eckstein & Amit Friedman, 2011. "The equilibrium real exchange rate for Israel," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 201-213, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    5. Oscar Afonso & Tiago Sequeira, 2020. "Tradable and nontradable directed technical change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(36), pages 3874-3897, July.
    6. Martin Berka & Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2012. "Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 179-185, May.
    7. Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Five Years of Research on Globalization and Monetary Policy: What Have We Learned?," Annual Report, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 2-17.
    8. Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "From the Stability Pact to ESM - What Next?," Chapters, in: Andreas Dombret & Otto Lucius (ed.), Stability of the Financial System, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Naohisa Hirakata & Yuto Iwasaki & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Emerging Economies’ Supply Shocks and Japan’s Price Deflation : International Transmissions in a Three-Country DSGE Model," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23970, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Rudolfs Bems & Julian di Giovanni, 2016. "Income-Induced Expenditure Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(12), pages 3898-3931, December.
    11. Oscar Afonso & Manuela Magalhães, 2021. "The role of intellectual property rights in a directed technical change model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2142-2176, April.
    12. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
    13. Karine Gente & Carine Nourry, 2011. "Integration, real exchange rate and growth," Working Papers halshs-00643043, HAL.
    14. Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak & Muhammad Tariq & Jangraiz Khan, 2012. "Factors Affecting the Nominal Exchange Rate of Pakistan: An Econometric Investigation (1982-2008)," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 421-428, June.
    15. Syed Ali Raza & Sahar Afshan, 2017. "Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 825-848, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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