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Assessment of metro ridership fluctuation caused by weather conditions in Asian context: Using archived weather and ridership data in Nanjing

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  • Li, Junlong
  • Li, Xuhong
  • Chen, Dawei
  • Godding, Lucy

Abstract

This paper aims to assess metro ridership fluctuation caused by weather conditions in an Asian context (Nanjing, China) on metro single line and network levels. The daily ridership data utilized in the study is obtained from Nanjing Metro Agency, while meteorological data is from the Nanjing Meteorology Bureau. To address the main research questions of this paper, time-serials moving average method is extended and refined to define benchmark and to model ridership fluctuation (expressed as ridership residual). On the other hand, analyses of variance (ANOVAs) are introduced to examine meteorological events and temporal effects on ridership residuals. The data and result demonstrates that the impact of meteorological variables on daily ridership fluctuations generally results in a decrease in passengers on single lines and the travel network, especially on weekends. Precipitation related events produce more significant ridership fluctuations than temperature related events. Snowfall related events and large temperature deviations in winter account for the most dramatic changes in ridership. However, seasonality is not a significant factor in meteorological events-ridership residual relationship. This paper contributes to extending research on the weather-ridership relationship around the world especially to refining and extending the nine-term moving average method in this field. This could benefit metro operators by enabling them to add meteorological effects into their ridership prediction and budgeting work.

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  • Li, Junlong & Li, Xuhong & Chen, Dawei & Godding, Lucy, 2018. "Assessment of metro ridership fluctuation caused by weather conditions in Asian context: Using archived weather and ridership data in Nanjing," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 356-368.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:356-368
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.10.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miao, Qing & Welch, Eric W. & Sriraj, P.S., 2019. "Extreme weather, public transport ridership and moderating effect of bus stop shelters," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 125-133.
    2. Wei Yu & Xiaofei Ye & Jun Chen & Xingchen Yan & Tao Wang, 2020. "Evaluation Indexes and Correlation Analysis of Origination–Destination Travel Time of Nanjing Metro Based on Complex Network Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, February.
    3. Wu, Jingwen & Liao, Hua, 2020. "Weather, travel mode choice, and impacts on subway ridership in Beijing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 264-279.
    4. Wei Yu & Hua Bai & Jun Chen & Xingchen Yan, 2019. "Analysis of Space-Time Variation of Passenger Flow and Commuting Characteristics of Residents Using Smart Card Data of Nanjing Metro," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Zhou, Yufeng & Li, Zihao & Meng, Yangyang & Li, Zhongwen & Zhong, Maohua, 2021. "Analyzing spatio-temporal impacts of extreme rainfall events on metro ridership characteristics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 577(C).
    6. Yang, Xiaobao & Yue, Xianfei & Sun, Huijun & Gao, Ziyou & Wang, Wencheng, 2021. "Impact of weather on freeway origin-destination volume in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-47.
    7. Liping Ge & Malek Sarhani & Stefan Voß & Lin Xie, 2021. "Review of Transit Data Sources: Potentials, Challenges and Complementarity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-37, October.
    8. Wei Yu & Tao Wang & Yujie Xiao & Jun Chen & Xingchen Yan, 2020. "A Carbon Emission Measurement Method for Individual Travel Based on Transportation Big Data: The Case of Nanjing Metro," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Kevin Lanza & Casey P. Durand, 2021. "Heat-Moderating Effects of Bus Stop Shelters and Tree Shade on Public Transport Ridership," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-15, January.

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