IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v93y2020ics0305048317301111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Michna, Zbigniew
  • Disney, Stephen M.
  • Nielsen, Peter

Abstract

We quantify the bullwhip effect (which measures how the variance of replenishment orders is amplified as the orders move up the supply chain) when both random demands and random lead times are estimated using the industrially popular moving average forecasting method. We assume that the lead times constitute a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables and the correlated demands are described by a first-order autoregressive process. We obtain an expression that reveals the impact of demand and lead time forecasting on the bullwhip effect. We draw a number of conclusions on the bullwhip behaviour with respect to the demand auto-correlation and the number of past lead times and demands used in the forecasts. We find maxima and minima in the bullwhip measure as a function of the demand auto-correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michna, Zbigniew & Disney, Stephen M. & Nielsen, Peter, 2020. "The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:93:y:2020:i:c:s0305048317301111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2019.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305048317301111
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.omega.2019.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Van Houdt, Benny, 2009. "Designing replenishment rules in a two-echelon supply chain with a flexible or an inflexible capacity strategy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 187-198, May.
    2. Heung‐Kyu Kim & Jennifer K. Ryan, 2003. "The cost impact of using simple forecasting techniques in a supply chain," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 388-411, August.
    3. Hau L. Lee & Kut C. So & Christopher S. Tang, 2000. "The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 626-643, May.
    4. Kim, Jeon G. & Chatfield, Dean & Harrison, Terry P. & Hayya, Jack C., 2006. "Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a supply chain with stochastic lead time," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 617-636, September.
    5. Robert S. Kaplan, 1970. "A Dynamic Inventory Model with Stochastic Lead Times," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(7), pages 491-507, March.
    6. Zhang, Xiaolong, 2004. "The impact of forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 15-27, March.
    7. James R. Bradley & Lawrence W. Robinson, 2005. "Improved Base-Stock Approximations for Independent Stochastic Lead Times with Order Crossover," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 319-329, November.
    8. Frank Chen & Jennifer K. Ryan & David Simchi‐Levi, 2000. "The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 269-286, June.
    9. Disney, Stephen M. & Maltz, Arnold & Wang, Xun & Warburton, Roger D.H., 2016. "Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(2), pages 473-486.
    10. Sin-Hoon Hum & Mahmut Parlar, 2014. "Measurement and optimization of supply chain responsiveness," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Jing-Sheng Song, 1994. "The Effect of Leadtime Uncertainty in a Simple Stochastic Inventory Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 603-613, May.
    12. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2017. "Mitigating variance amplification under stochastic lead-time: The proportional control approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 151-162.
    13. Dejonckheere, J. & Disney, S. M. & Lambrecht, M. R. & Towill, D. R., 2003. "Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: A control theoretic approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 567-590, June.
    14. Towill, Denis R. & Zhou, Li & Disney, Stephen M., 2007. "Reducing the bullwhip effect: Looking through the appropriate lens," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 444-453, July.
    15. Kahn, James A, 1987. "Inventories and the Volatility of Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 667-679, September.
    16. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 1997. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 546-558, April.
    17. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    18. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Houdt, Benny Van, 2014. "Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 52-63.
    19. Chaharsooghi, S. Kamal & Heydari, Jafar, 2010. "LT variance or LT mean reduction in supply chain management: Which one has a higher impact on SC performance?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 475-481, April.
    20. Ali, Mohammad M. & Boylan, John E. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2012. "Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 830-841.
    21. Dejonckheere, J. & Disney, S. M. & Lambrecht, M. R. & Towill, D. R., 2004. "The impact of information enrichment on the Bullwhip effect in supply chains: A control engineering perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(3), pages 727-750, March.
    22. Lawrence W. Robinson & James R. Bradley & L. Joseph Thomas, 2001. "Consequences of Order Crossover Under Order-Up-To Inventory Policies," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 175-188, September.
    23. Paul Zipkin, 1986. "Stochastic leadtimes in continuous‐time inventory models," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 763-774, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ponte, Borja & Dominguez, Roberto & Cannella, Salvatore & Framinan, Jose M., 2022. "The implications of batching in the bullwhip effect and customer service of closed-loop supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ponte, Borja & Costas, José & Puche, Julio & Pino, Raúl & de la Fuente, David, 2018. "The value of lead time reduction and stabilization: A comparison between traditional and collaborative supply chains," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 165-185.
    2. Chatfield, Dean C. & Pritchard, Alan M., 2013. "Returns and the bullwhip effect," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 159-175.
    3. Lin, Junyi & Huang, Hongfu & Li, Shanshan & Naim, Mohamed M., 2023. "On the dynamics of order pipeline inventory in a nonlinear order-up-to system," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    4. Ahmed Shaban & Mohamed A. Shalaby & Giulio Di Gravio & Riccardo Patriarca, 2020. "Analysis of Variance Amplification and Service Level in a Supply Chain with Correlated Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Pastore, Erica & Alfieri, Arianna & Zotteri, Giulio & Boylan, John E., 2020. "The impact of demand parameter uncertainty on the bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 94-107.
    6. Dominguez, Roberto & Cannella, Salvatore & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana P. & Framinan, Jose M., 2018. "OVAP: A strategy to implement partial information sharing among supply chain retailers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 122-136.
    7. Hum, Sin-Hoon & Parlar, Mahmut & Zhou, Yun, 2018. "Measurement and optimization of responsiveness in supply chain networks with queueing structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 106-118.
    8. Disney, Stephen M. & Maltz, Arnold & Wang, Xun & Warburton, Roger D.H., 2016. "Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(2), pages 473-486.
    9. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2017. "Mitigating variance amplification under stochastic lead-time: The proportional control approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 151-162.
    10. Ciancimino, Elena & Cannella, Salvatore & Bruccoleri, Manfredi & Framinan, Jose M., 2012. "On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: The Synchronised Supply Chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 49-63.
    11. Dominguez, Roberto & Cannella, Salvatore & Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M., 2020. "On the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains under remanufacturing lead time variability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Rupesh Kumar Pati, 2014. "Modelling Bullwhip Effect in a Closed Loop Supply Chain with ARMA Demand," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 3(2), pages 149-164, July.
    13. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    14. Babai, M.Z. & Boylan, J.E. & Syntetos, A.A. & Ali, M.M., 2016. "Reduction of the value of information sharing as demand becomes strongly auto-correlated," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(PA), pages 130-135.
    15. Dominguez, Roberto & Cannella, Salvatore & Framinan, Jose M., 2021. "Remanufacturing configuration in complex supply chains," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    16. Enrique Holgado de Frutos & Juan R Trapero & Francisco Ramos, 2020. "A literature review on operational decisions applied to collaborative supply chains," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-28, March.
    17. Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M. & Cannella, Salvatore & Dominguez, Roberto, 2020. "Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in closed-loop supply chains: The interplay of information transparencies, return rates, and lead times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    18. K. Devika & A. Jafarian & A. Hassanzadeh & R. Khodaverdi, 2016. "Optimizing of bullwhip effect and net stock amplification in three-echelon supply chains using evolutionary multi-objective metaheuristics," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 242(2), pages 457-487, July.
    19. Nagaraja, Chaitra H. & McElroy, Tucker, 2018. "The multivariate bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 96-106.
    20. Cannella, Salvatore & Dominguez, Roberto & Ponte, Borja & Framinan, Jose M., 2018. "Capacity restrictions and supply chain performance: Modelling and analysing load-dependent lead times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 264-277.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:93:y:2020:i:c:s0305048317301111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.