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Sequencing questions to ferret out terrorists: Models and heuristics

Author

Listed:
  • Sundararaghavan, P.S.
  • Kunnathur, Anand
  • Fang, Xiao

Abstract

Consider the problem of granting boarding clearance for a large population of air travelers while ferreting out any potential terrorists and denying them entry, in a short time. It is assumed that the probability of having a terrorist in the group is very small. Further assume that the process consists of asking a series of questions and the decision to clear or deny is dependent on the answer set. An efficient sequencing of the questions may reduce the number of questions needed to be asked in order to reach a decision. This problem is modeled as a question sequencing problem. The problem is intrinsically hard and hence we develop two approaches to solving the problem. The first uses a traditional greedy heuristic approach exploiting the relationship between answers and the outcome. The second adopts the decision tree approach used in classification problems to this problem. We also report on the performance of the two heuristics which does exceptionally well on problems with a very low probability of occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Sundararaghavan, P.S. & Kunnathur, Anand & Fang, Xiao, 2010. "Sequencing questions to ferret out terrorists: Models and heuristics," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 12-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:38:y:2010:i:1-2:p:12-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klein, Barbara D., 2001. "Detecting errors in data: clarification of the impact of base rate expectations and incentives," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 391-404, October.
    2. Fang, Xiao & Rachamadugu, Ram, 2009. "Policies for knowledge refreshing in databases," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 16-28, February.
    3. Wim Linden & Ellen Boekkooi-Timminga, 1989. "A maximin model for IRT-based test design with practical constraints," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 237-247, June.
    4. Klein, B. D. & Rossin, D. F., 1999. "Data quality in neural network models: effect of error rate and magnitude of error on predictive accuracy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 569-582, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    2. Bell, John E. & Griffis, Stanley E. & Cunningham III, William A. & Eberlan, Jon A., 2011. "Location optimization of strategic alert sites for homeland defense," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 151-158, April.
    3. Gerstenfeld, Arthur & Berger, Paul D., 2011. "A decision-analysis approach for optimal airport security," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 14-21.

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