IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v35y2024ics2405851324000394.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the variance of earnings growth: The case of shipping

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Hyun-Tak
  • Yun, Heesung

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between the unexpected changes in earnings and the shipping market movements. The econometric method of variance decomposition proposed by Campbell (1991) is employed to empirically analyze the Panamax and Capesize markets. We find that a large proportion of unexpected earnings growth is related to news about returns that indicate subsequent price changes. The results provide important insights to practice for sustaining shipping businesses, which helps shipping companies make better investment and risk-management decisions. The contribution of this research is to deepen the understanding of the interaction between shocks to earnings growth, returns, and price–charter ratios in the present-value context.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Hyun-Tak & Yun, Heesung, 2024. "Understanding the variance of earnings growth: The case of shipping," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:35:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000394
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851324000394
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100420?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
    2. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    3. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Amir H. Alizadeh, 2002. "Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 303-330.
    4. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    6. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    8. Hyun-Tak Lee & Heesung Yun, 2022. "What moves shipping markets?: A variance decomposition of price–charter ratios," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 1027-1042, October.
    9. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2016. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across shipping freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 90-111.
    12. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    13. Alizadeh, Amir H., 2013. "Trading volume and volatility in the shipping forward freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 250-265.
    14. Amir H. Alizadeh & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2011. "Dynamics of the Term Structure and Volatility of Shipping Freight Rates," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(1), pages 105-128, January.
    15. Moutzouris, Ioannis C. & Nomikos, Nikos K., 2019. "Earnings yield and predictability in the dry bulk shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 140-159.
    16. Harry Bloch & Patricia Fraser & Garry MacDonald, 2012. "Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(18), pages 2347-2357, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    2. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2014. "Housing market volatility in the OECD area: Evidence from VAR based return decompositions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 91-103.
    3. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    4. Maio, Paulo & Zeng, Ming, 2023. "On the driving forces of real exchange rates: Is the Japanese Yen different?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    6. López Gaviria, José Ignacio, 2019. "Predictibilidad del mercado accionario colombiano," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 91, pages 117-150, July.
    7. Engsted, Tom & Pedersen, Thomas Q. & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2012. "Pitfalls in VAR based return decompositions: A clarification," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1255-1265.
    8. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Borja Larrain, 2016. "What Moves Investment Growth?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1613-1653, December.
    9. Lof, Matthijs & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "Discount rates and cash flows: A local projection approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Assaf Eisdorfer, 2007. "The Importance of Cash‐Flow News for Financially Distressed Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 33-48, September.
    11. Fausch, Jürg & Sigonius, Markus, 2018. "The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 46-63.
    12. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    13. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
    14. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2018. "Decomposing the predictive power of local and global financial valuation ratios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 137-149.
    15. Tom Engsted & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2016. "The predictive power of dividend yields for future infl?ation: Money illusion or rational causes?," CREATES Research Papers 2016-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Stephan Jank, 2015. "Changes in the Composition of Publicly Traded Firms: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1362-1377, June.
    17. Herculano, Miguel C. & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Investor sentiment and global economic conditions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 134-152.
    18. Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
    19. David Haab & Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
    20. Chen, Yong & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dayong, 2022. "Short selling efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 387-408.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:35:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.