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Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format

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  • Riege, Anine H.
  • Teigen, Karl Halvor

Abstract

When people are asked to estimate the probabilities for an exhaustive set of more than two events, they often produce probabilities that add up to more than 100%. Potential determinants for such additivity neglect are explored in four experiments. Additive responses vary between experimental conditions, mainly as a result of response format, with a scale format leading to fewer additive responses than a list format with self-generated, written probabilities. Participants with high numeracy scores produced more additive responses, especially after being primed with a numeracy scale. Additivity neglect for 100% sums appears to be unrelated to other subadditive judgments, like non-additive disjunctions. We conclude that additivity neglect is caused by a case-based approach, which comes natural in real-life situations where the full set of outcomes is not available.

Suggested Citation

  • Riege, Anine H. & Teigen, Karl Halvor, 2013. "Additivity neglect in probability estimates: Effects of numeracy and response format," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 41-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:121:y:2013:i:1:p:41-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.11.004
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    Cited by:

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    2. Teigen, Karl Halvor & Juanchich, Marie & Løhre, Erik, 2022. "What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Gro Hege Haraldsen Nordbye & Karl Halvor Teigen, 2014. "Responsibility judgments of wins and losses in the 2013 chess championship," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(4), pages 335-348, July.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:1:p:15-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:cup:judgdm:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:7-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Saima Ghazal & Edward T. Cokely & Rocio Garcia-Retamero, 2014. "Predicting biases in very highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 9(1), pages 15-34, January.
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:9:y:2014:i:4:p:335-348 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shai Davidai & Thomas Gilovich, 2016. "The tide that lifts all focal boats: Asymmetric predictions of ascent and descent in rankings," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(1), pages 7-20, January.

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