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Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

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  • Bilgin, Baler
  • Brenner, Lyle

Abstract

Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgin, Baler & Brenner, Lyle, 2013. "Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 118-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:121:y:2013:i:1:p:118-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2013.01.004
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    1. Teigen, Karl Halvor & Brun, Wibecke, 1999. "The Directionality of Verbal Probability Expressions: Effects on Decisions, Predictions, and Probabilistic Reasoning, , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 155-190, November.
    2. Joao L. Becker & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1987. "Lottery Dependent Utility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(11), pages 1367-1382, November.
    3. Chapman, Gretchen B. & Johnson, Eric J., 1999. "Anchoring, Activation, and the Construction of Values, , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 115-153, August.
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    Cited by:

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