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Bias correction of cross-validation criterion based on Kullback-Leibler information under a general condition

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  • Yanagihara, Hirokazu
  • Tonda, Tetsuji
  • Matsumoto, Chieko

Abstract

This paper deals with the bias correction of the cross-validation (CV) criterion to estimate the predictive Kullback-Leibler information. A bias-corrected CV criterion is proposed by replacing the ordinary maximum likelihood estimator with the maximizer of the adjusted log-likelihood function. The adjustment is just slight and simple, but the improvement of the bias is remarkable. The bias of the ordinary CV criterion is O(n-1), but that of the bias-corrected CV criterion is O(n-2). We verify that our criterion has smaller bias than the AIC, TIC, EIC and the ordinary CV criterion by numerical experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanagihara, Hirokazu & Tonda, Tetsuji & Matsumoto, Chieko, 2006. "Bias correction of cross-validation criterion based on Kullback-Leibler information under a general condition," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(9), pages 1965-1975, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:97:y:2006:i:9:p:1965-1975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yasunori Fujikoshi & Takafumi Noguchi & Megu Ohtaki & Hirokazu Yanagihara, 2003. "Corrected versions of cross-validation criteria for selecting multivariate regression and growth curve models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 55(3), pages 537-553, September.
    2. Makio Ishiguro & Yosiyuki Sakamoto & Genshiro Kitagawa, 1997. "Bootstrapping Log Likelihood and EIC, an Extension of AIC," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 49(3), pages 411-434, September.
    3. Yanagihara, Hirokazu, 2006. "Corrected version of AIC for selecting multivariate normal linear regression models in a general nonnormal case," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(5), pages 1070-1089, May.
    4. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Vidoni, 2015. "Estimating the Kullback–Liebler risk based on multifold cross-validation," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 69(4), pages 510-540, November.

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