IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v35y2013icp93-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain

Author

Listed:
  • Croux, Christophe
  • Reusens, Peter

Abstract

This paper investigates the predictive power for the future domestic economic activity included in the domestic stock prices, using a Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain. We are able to evaluate whether the predictive power is concentrated at the slowly fluctuating components or at the quickly fluctuating components. Using 1991Q1–2010Q2 quarterly data, for the G-7 countries, we found that the slowly fluctuating components of the stock prices have large predictive power for the future GDP, while this is not the case for the quickly fluctuating components. This finding holds both in a single-country setting and in a multi-country setting. Therefore, macro-economic policy makers could use the slowly fluctuating components of the stock prices to improve their predictions of the future GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Croux, Christophe & Reusens, Peter, 2013. "Do stock prices contain predictive power for the future economic activity? A Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 93-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:93-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070412001000
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anton Korinek & Agustin Roitman & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "Decoupling and Recoupling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 393-397, May.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Money growth, output gaps and inflation at low and high frequency: Spectral estimates for Switzerland," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 411-435, February.
    4. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
    5. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Reconsidering the macroeconomics of the oil price in Germany: testing for causality in the frequency domain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 441-453, May.
    6. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
    7. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
    8. Douglas K. Pearce, 1983. "Stock prices and the economy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 68(Sep), pages 7-22.
    9. Buse, A., 1979. "Goodness-of-fit in the seemingly unrelated regressions model : A generalization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 109-113, April.
    10. Rua, António, 2010. "Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 685-691, June.
    11. Koren, Stephan & Stiassny, Alfred, 1998. "Tax and Spend, or Spend and Tax? An International Study," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 163-191, April.
    12. Yajuan Mao & Rongfu Wu, 2007. "Does The Stock Market Act As A Signal For Real Activity? Evidence From Australia," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 180-192, June.
    13. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    14. Giovanni Fraquelli & Massimiliano Piacenza & Davide Vannoni, 2004. "Scope and scale economies in multi-utilities: evidence from gas, water and electricity combinations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 2045-2057.
    15. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
    16. Kim Sangbae & In Francis Haeuck, 2003. "The Relationship Between Financial Variables and Real Economic Activity: Evidence From Spectral and Wavelet Analyses," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Yao, Feng & Hosoya, Yuzo, 2000. "Inference on one-way effect and evidence in Japanese macroeconomic data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 225-255, October.
    18. McElroy, Marjorie B., 1977. "Goodness of fit for seemingly unrelated regressions : Glahn's R2y.x and Hooper's r2," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 381-387, November.
    19. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 964-986, August.
    20. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    21. Henry, Ólan & Olekalns, Nilss & Shields, Kalvinder, 2010. "Sign and phase asymmetry: News, economic activity and the stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1083-1100, December.
    22. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    23. Hassapis, Christis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2002. "Investigating the links between growth and real stock price changes with empirical evidence from the G-7 economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 543-575.
    24. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    25. Mathias Binswanger, 2000. "Stock returns and real activity: is there still a connection?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 379-387.
    26. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    27. McGarvey, Mary G, 1991. "The Neutrality Properties of Competing Relative Price Models: Tests Using Linear Feedback," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 15-25, January.
    28. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2008. "Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 414-431.
    29. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Veli Yilanci & Onder Ozgur & Muhammed Sehid Gorus, 2021. "Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2015. "Frequency domain causality analysis of stock market and economic activity in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 224-238.
    3. Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Growth-returns nexus: Evidence from three Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-355.
    4. Ozlem Goktas & Aycan Hepsag, 2011. "Do stock returns lead real economic activity? Evidence from seasonal cointegration analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2117-2127.
    5. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1571-1578.
    6. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    7. Komain Jiranyakul, 2013. "The Predictive Role of Stock Market Return for Real Activity in Thailand," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 317-328.
    8. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-441 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ülkü, Numan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Kuzmicheva, Olga, 2017. "Stock market's response to real output shocks in Eastern European frontier markets: A VARwAL model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 140-154.
    11. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2021. "A tale of tails : New evidence on the growth-return nexus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Bekiros, Stelios & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sjö, Bo, 2016. "On the time scale behavior of equity-commodity links: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-46.
    13. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis G. Artikis, 2016. "Foreign Exchange Risk, Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(4), pages 425-445, December.
    14. Ritabrata Bose & Ashima Goyal, 2020. "Disaggregated Indian industrial cycles: A Spectral analysis," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-033, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    15. Breitung, Jörg & Schreiber, Sven, 2018. "Assessing causality and delay within a frequency band," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 57-73.
    16. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2012. "Breakdowns and revivals: the long-run relationship between the stock market and real economic activity in the G-7 countries," MPRA Paper 43306, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Nikolaos Giannellis & Angelos Kanas & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2010. "Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between Stock Market and Real Activity: Evidence from the UK and the US," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 429-445, December.
    18. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Tax Burden and GDP: Evidence from Frequency Doman Approach for the USA," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 147-159.
    19. Numan Ülkü & Kexing Wu, 2023. "Stock Market's Response to Real Output Shocks in China: A VARwAL Estimation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(5), pages 1-25, September.
    20. Yang, Qiao, 2019. "Stock returns and real growth: A Bayesian nonparametric approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-69.
    21. Ciner, Cetin, 2020. "Causality dynamics from equities to economic growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Frequency domain; Granger causality; Gross domestic product; Predictive power; Stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:93-103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.