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The impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and social outcomes in Europe and the CIS

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  • Carmignani, Fabrizio

Abstract

The paper studies the effects of fiscal policy on per-capita private consumption and social outcomes in a simultaneous equations framework. The focus is on transition economies and the model specification allows for a non-linear response of socio-economic variables to fiscal policy depending on the fiscal regime. Key results are (i) fiscal policy has Keynesian effects in transition countries and non-Keynesian effects in high-income OECD economies, but only outside normal times, (ii) public health and social protection expenditure improve social outcomes, and (iii) there is evidence of electoral business cycle of fiscal policy in both transition and high-income countries.

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  • Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2008. "The impact of fiscal policy on private consumption and social outcomes in Europe and the CIS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 575-598, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:1:p:575-598
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    3. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
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    5. Fabrizio Carmignani & James S. Laurenceson, 2013. "Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 323-340, April.
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    7. Desire Avom & Fabrizio Carmignani, "undated". "Is Mother Nature a Curse for Social Development?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2709, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    8. Hideki Nishigaki, 2008. "Are the fiscal and monetary policies of the G-7 countries effective in decreasing the U.S. trade deficit?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(27), pages 1-13.
    9. Marcelo Santos & Marta Simões & Sílvia Sousa, 2024. "Health human capital formation in the OECD: Exploring the role of welfare state composition," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 580-610, March.
    10. Surugiu Marius Razvan & Surugiu Camelia, 2017. "The Assessment of Taxation Impact on Economic Development. A Case Study of Romania (1995-2014)," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(36), pages 7-20, November.
    11. Kaya, Ayşe & Şen, Hüseyin, 2015. "Taxes and Private Consumption Expenditure: A Component Based Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 61857, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jan 2015.
    12. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2009. "The distributive effects of institutional quality when government stability is endogenous," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 409-421, December.
    13. José Alves & António Afonso, 2019. "Tax structure for consumption and income inequality: an empirical assessment," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 337-364, November.
    14. Fabrizio Carmignani, "undated". "Cyclical fiscal policy in developing countries: the case of Africa," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2408, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    15. World Bank, 2013. "Reviving Romania's Growth and Convergence Challenges and Opportunities : A Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Publications - Reports 16036, The World Bank Group.
    16. Fabrizio Carmignani & Sriram Shankar & Eng Tan & Kam Tang, 2014. "Identifying covariates of population health using extreme bound analysis," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(5), pages 515-531, June.
    17. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.

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