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Nowcasting economic activity with mobility data

Author

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  • Matsumura, Kohei
  • Oh, Yusuke
  • Sugo, Tomohiro
  • Takahashi, Koji

Abstract

We develop high-frequency indices to measure sales in service industries and production in the manufacturing sector using GPS mobility data from mobile applications. First, by utilizing the point of interest data, we develop indicators to capture sales in amusement parks, shopping centers, and food services. Second, we construct indicators for nowcasting production based on the foot traffic in factory areas that are identified by using the Economic Census and mobility patterns. We find that the mobility data allow us to nowcast sales in the service sectors and have the potential to be used to nowcast the production in labor-intensive industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Matsumura, Kohei & Oh, Yusuke & Sugo, Tomohiro & Takahashi, Koji, 2024. "Nowcasting economic activity with mobility data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:73:y:2024:i:c:s0889158324000236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi & Yang Liu & Mamoon Saeed, 2020. "World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch," IMF Working Papers 2020/057, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2018. "Nowcasting with payments system data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 366-376.
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    4. Victor Couture & Jonathan I. Dingel & Allison E. Green & Jessie Handbury & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "Using Payment System Data to Forecast Economic Activity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 55-80, October.
    6. Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Marco Marini & Ms. Patrizia Tumbarello, 2019. "Big Data on Vessel Traffic: Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 2019/275, International Monetary Fund.
    7. M. Keith Chen & Devin G. Pope, 2020. "Geographic Mobility in America: Evidence from Cell Phone Data," NBER Working Papers 27072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Furukawa, Kakuho & Hisano, Ryohei & Minoura, Yukio & Yagi, Tomoyuki, 2024. "A nowcasting model of industrial production using alternative data and machine learning approaches," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mobility data; Nowcasting; Clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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