IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jjieco/v69y2023ics0889158323000291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Alberola, Enrique
  • Cheng, Gong
  • Consiglio, Andrea
  • Zenios, Stavros A.

Abstract

We adapt to the Japanese case a model of stochastic debt sustainability within a monetary policymaking framework. The model incorporates the effects of unconventional monetary policy and its potential unwinding on sovereign debt dynamics. A scenario tree represents stochastic and correlated macroeconomic and fiscal variables, and a coherent risk measure allows to draw probabilistic inferences on sustainability. We calibrate the model to the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) that Bank of Japan launched in 2013. Using a retrospective analysis, we find a large favourable effect of the QQE on sovereign debt dynamics. Forward-looking simulations under different exit strategies show that the termination and unwinding of the QQE could raise debt sustainability concerns. A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have a similar negative impact on debt dynamics, requiring a fiscal adjustment to keep debt sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberola, Enrique & Cheng, Gong & Consiglio, Andrea & Zenios, Stavros A., 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and debt sustainability in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:69:y:2023:i:c:s0889158323000291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158323000291
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    2. Futagami, Koichi & Konishi, Kunihiko, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of budget policy rules in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-88.
    3. Alexis Stenfors & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2022. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy Focal Points," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 348-355, April.
    4. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    5. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    6. Andrea Consiglio & Angelo Carollo & Stavros A. Zenios, 2016. "A parsimonious model for generating arbitrage-free scenario trees," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 201-212, February.
    7. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    8. Fernández, Raquel & Martín, Alberto, 2014. "The Long and the Short of It: Sovereign Debt Crises and Debt Maturity," CEPR Discussion Papers 10322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    10. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    11. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    12. Warmedinger, Thomas & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Drudi, Francesco & Setzer, Ralph & De Stefani, Roberta & Bouabdallah, Othman & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Debt sustainability analysis for euro area sovereigns: a methodological framework," Occasional Paper Series 185, European Central Bank.
    13. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    14. Koeda, Junko, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-141.
    15. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tomura, Hajime, 2017. "Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2017. "The optimum quantity of debt for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-26.
    17. Nobuyuki Oda & Kazuo Ueda, 2007. "The Effects Of The Bank Of Japan'S Zero Interest Rate Commitment And Quantitative Monetary Easing On The Yield Curve: A Macro‐Finance Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 303-328, September.
    18. Jérémie Cohen-Setton & Keita Oikawa, 2022. "Japans public debt sustainability before and after COVID-19," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & Marcelo M. Giugale & Juan J. Pradelli (ed.), The Sustainability of Asia’s Debt, chapter 2, pages 66-86, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Stavros A. Zenios & Andrea Consiglio & Marialena Athanasopoulou & Edmund Moshammer & Angel Gavilan & Aitor Erce, 2021. "Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 755-773, May.
    20. Luigi Bocola & Alessandro Dovis, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Quantitative Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4343-4377, December.
    21. Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 5-49.
    22. Mr. Niklas J Westelius, 2020. "Twenty Years of Unconventional Monetary Policies: Lessons and Way Forward for the Bank of Japan," IMF Working Papers 2020/226, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Junko Koeda & Yoichi Ueno, 2022. "A Preferred Habitat View of Yield Curve Control," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    24. Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign debt management and fiscal vulnerabilities," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 157-176, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    26. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
    27. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Gong Cheng & Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases," BIS Working Papers 1034, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    29. Jean-Marc Fournier & Takuma Hisanaga & Anh D. M. Nguyen, 2022. "The Fiscal Stance in Japan: A Model-based Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2022/164, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Francisco Gomes-Pereira, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Influence Euro Area Fiscal Sustainability?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11266, CESifo.
    2. Lotfi, Somayyeh & Milidonis, Andreas & Zenios, Stavros A., 2024. "Mispricing of debt expansion in the eurozone sovereign credit market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Gong Cheng & Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases," BIS Working Papers 1034, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Stavros A. Zenios & Andrea Consiglio & Marialena Athanasopoulou & Edmund Moshammer & Angel Gavilan & Aitor Erce, 2021. "Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 755-773, May.
    3. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1864, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Perez, Diego J., 2017. "Sovereign debt maturity structure under asymmetric information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 243-259.
    5. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2021. "Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Revisiting Lucas-Stokey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1640-1665.
    6. Joao Ayres & Gaston Navarro & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2019. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," Working Papers 757, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    8. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2022. "Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 435-491.
    9. Asonuma, Tamon & Niepelt, Dirk & Ranciere, Romain, 2023. "Sovereign bond prices, haircuts and maturity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2018. "Deadly Embrace: Sovereign and Financial Balance Sheets Doom Loops," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1781-1823.
    11. Giancarlo Corsetti, 2023. "Debt crises, fast and slow Giancarlo," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/15, European University Institute.
    12. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2018. "Optimal Fiscal Policy without Commitment: Beyond Lucas-Stokey," NBER Working Papers 24522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Roch, Francisco & Uhlig, Harald, 2018. "The dynamics of sovereign debt crises and bailouts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2022. "The Commitment Benefit of Consols in Government Debt Management," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 255-270, June.
    15. Giovanni Callegari & Ramon Marimon & Adrien Wicht & Luca Zavalloni, 2023. "On a Lender of Last Resort with a Central Bank and a Stability Fund," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 50, pages 106-130, October.
    16. Doemeland,Doerte & Estevão,Marcello & Jooste,Charl & Sampi Bravo,James Robert Ezequiel & Tsiropoulos,Vasileios, 2022. "Debt Vulnerability Analysis : A Multi-Angle Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9929, The World Bank.
    17. Javier Bianchi & Jorge Mondragon, 2018. "Rollover Crises and Currency Unions," 2018 Meeting Papers 1215, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Marialena Athanasopoulou & Andrea Consiglio & Aitor Erce & Angel Gavilan & Edmund Moshammer & Stavros A. Zenios, 2019. "Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1697-1755, Elsevier.
    20. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt sustainability analysis (DSA); Risk management; Quantitative easing; Yield Curve Control; Unconventional monetary policy; CVaR optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:69:y:2023:i:c:s0889158323000291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.