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The world predictive power of U.S. equity market skewness risk

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  • Chen, Jian
  • Jiang, Fuwei
  • Xue, Shuyu
  • Yao, Jiaquan

Abstract

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Xue, Shuyu & Yao, Jiaquan, 2019. "The world predictive power of U.S. equity market skewness risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 210-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:96:y:2019:i:c:p:210-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.05.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Realized skewness and the short-term predictability for aggregate stock market volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cunha, Felipe Arias Fogliano de Souza & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Maçaira, Paula Medina, 2020. "On the effects of uncertainty measures on sustainability indices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Chatelais, Nicolas & Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur & Chinn, Menzie D., 2023. "Forecasting real activity using cross-sectoral stock market information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Nicolas Chatelais & Menzie Chinn & Arthur Stalla-Bourdillon, 2022. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Filtered Signals from a Stock Market Cross Section," Working papers 903, Banque de France.
    7. Yigit Atilgan & K. Ozgur Demirtas & A. Doruk Gunaydin & Imra Kirli, 2023. "Average skewness in global equity markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 245-271, June.
    8. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Xu, Yahua & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Liguo, 2020. "Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 605-619.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; International stock markets; Skewness risk; Market crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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