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Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis

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  • Kim, Soyoung
  • Lima, Luiz Renato

Abstract

This paper examines the statistical properties of the bilateral real exchange rates of the U.S. vs. France, Germany, and the U.K. during the Post-Bretton-Woods period, and draws implications on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. Contrary to traditional studies that consider only unit root and stationary processes to describe the real exchange rate behavior, this paper considers an in-between process, the locally persistent process. The empirical results demonstrate the following two findings: (1) Locally persistent processes describe the real exchange rate movements better than unit root and stationary processes, which implies that PPP reversion occurs and PPP holds in the long-run. (2) The confidence intervals for half-life deviations from PPP under local persistence tend to be narrower than those obtained by assuming the ADF and the local-to-unity models.

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  • Kim, Soyoung & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2010. "Local persistence and the PPP hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 555-569, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:3:p:555-569
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    3. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Petros M. Migiakis, 2016. "Inflation persistence, learning dynamics and the rationality of inflation expectations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 963-979, November.
    4. Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Wohar, 2015. "Parity reversion in the Asian real exchange rates: new evidence from the local-persistent model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(59), pages 6395-6408, December.
    5. Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & André de Mattos Marques, 2013. "Testing absolute PPP hypothesis for twenty countries through the skeleton from a SETAR model- some new evidence," Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) 16, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba.
    6. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Hamzah, Nor Aishah, 2013. "Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 634-642.
    7. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Boršič, Darja, 2013. "Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 163-180.
    8. Soon, Siew-Voon & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohamad Shariff, Nurul Sima, 2017. "The persistence in real interest rates: Does it solve the intertemporal consumption behavior puzzle?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 36-51.
    9. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "Real Exchange Rates Persistence in the West African Monetary Zone: A Revisit of the PPP Puzzle," MPRA Paper 67282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Luke Lin & Chun I. Lee, 2016. "Central Bank Intervention, Exchange Rate Regime and the Purchasing Power Parity," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1256-1274, August.
    11. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Lau, Evan, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in an emerging market economy: When does public debt turn bad?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 99-113.

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