Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Casella, Alessandra, 1989. "Testing for rational bubbles with exogenous or endogenous fundamentals : The German hyperinflation once more," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 109-122, July.
- Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen & Sola, Martin, 1994.
"Rational bubbles during Poland's hyperinflation: Implications and empirical evidence,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1257-1276, June.
- M. Funke & S. Hall & M. Solá, 1993. "Rational bubbles during Polland’s hiperinflation: implications and empirical evidence," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1193, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Michael Funke & Stephen Hall & Martin Sola, 1993. "Rational Bubbles During Poland's Hyperinflation: Implications and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 52, CESifo.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1991.
"The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
- Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980.
"Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- LaHaye, Laura, 1985. "Inflation and Currency Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 537-560, June.
- Shiller, Robert J & Siegel, Jeremy J, 1977. "The Gibson Paradox and Historical Movements in Real Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 891-907, October.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1993. "Testing for cointegration : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 359-362.
- Goodfriend, Marvin S., 1982.
"An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 43-57.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1979. "An alternative method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations," Working Paper 79-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Research Working Paper 90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Kenneth D. West, 1987.
"A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
- Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hargreaves, Colin P. (ed.), 1994. "Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773924.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
- Durlauf, Steven N. & Hall, Robert E., 1988.
"Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations,"
CEPR Publications
244420, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Robert E. Hall, 1989. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
- Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1984. "Rational Bubbles in the Price of Gold," NBER Working Papers 1300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiano, Lawrence J, 1987. "Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49, February.
- Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979.
"The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
- Sargent, Thomas J, 1977. "The Demand for Money During Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1976. "The demand for money during hyperinflations under rational expectations: II," Working Papers 60, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 32-37, February.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1986.
"Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 831-842, September.
- Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 1867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1996.
"Market Fundamentals versus Speculative Bubbles: A New Test Applied to the German Hyperinflation,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 303-317, October.
- Blackburn, K. & Sola, M., 1992. "Market fundamentals versus speculative bubbles. A new test applied to the German hyperinflation," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9208, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
- Evans, Paul, 1978. "Time-Series Analysis of the German Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(1), pages 195-209, February.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Blangiewicz, Maria & Charemza, Wojciech W, 1990. "Cointegration in Small Samples: Empirical Percentiles, Drifting Moments and Customized Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(3), pages 303-315, August.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Leandro Arozamena & Federico Weinschelbaum & Juan-José Ganuza, 2021.
"Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2021_09, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Leandro Arozamena & Juan-José Ganuza & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2021. "Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions," Documentos de Trabajo 19429, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
- Leandro Arozamena & Juan-José Ganuza & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2021. "Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions," Working Papers 1275, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Leandro Arozamena & Juan José Ganuza & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2021. "Renegotiation and discrimination in symmetric procurement auctions," Economics Working Papers 1790, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Leandro Arozamena & Juan José Ganuza & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2021. "Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions," Working Papers 83, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
- Leandro Arozamena & Juan-José Ganuza & Federico Weinschelbaum, 2021. "Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions," Documentos de Trabajo 19430, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA).
- Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Some properties of periodically collapsing bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 299-302.
- Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
- Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
- Engsted, Tom, 2003.
"Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
- Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Comment," Finance Working Papers 02-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Morita Rubens & Psaradakis Zacharias & Sola Martin & Yunis Patricio, 2024.
"On testing for bubbles during hyperinflations,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 25-37, February.
- Rubens Morita & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martín Sola & Patricio Yunis, 2022. "On Testing for Bubbles During Hyperinflations," Department of Economics Working Papers 2022_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Hing Chan & Kai Woo, 2006. "Bubbles detection for inter-war European hyperinflation: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 169-185, June.
- Oscar J. Arce, 2006.
"Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
376, Society for Computational Economics.
- Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Working Papers 0607, Banco de España.
- Leung, Charles, 2004.
"Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature,"
Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
- Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Discussion Papers 00004, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Charles Ka-Yui Leung, 2004. "Macroeconomics and Housing: A Review of the Literature," Departmental Working Papers _164, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
- Hooker, Mark A., 2003. "Misspecification and bubbles in hyperinflation data: reply to Engsted1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 453-458, August.
- Efthymios Pavlidis & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2012. "A New Test for Rational Speculative Bubbles using Forward Exchange Rates: The Case of the Interwar German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 18599597, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Mark A. Hooker, 1997. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
- repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
- Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
- Engsted, Tom, 2003.
"Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
- Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Comment," Finance Working Papers 02-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
- repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
- Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047, July.
- Hing Chan & Kai Woo, 2006. "Bubbles detection for inter-war European hyperinflation: A threshold cointegration approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 169-185, June.
- Dimitris Georgoutsos & Georgios Kouretas, 2004.
"A Multivariate I(2) cointegration analysis of German hyperinflation,"
Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 29-41.
- Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011.
"EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2007. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 222007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1699, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Peter C.B. PHILIPS & Yangru WU & Jun YU, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers 19-2009, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Peter C.B.Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Working Papers CoFie-03-2008, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
- Peter C.B. Philips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2009. "Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq : When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?," Finance Working Papers 23050, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008.
"Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
- Refet Gurkaynak, 2005. "Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Finance 0504008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010.
"Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2006. "Speculative Bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the Tech Bubble Confined to the Tech Sector?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2006-07, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Bohl, Martin T., 2003. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the US stock market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 385-397.
- Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Wei Long & Dingding Li & Qi Li, 2016. "Testing explosive behavior in the gold market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1151-1164, November.
- Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
- Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.
- Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016.
"Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in the South African Stock Market," Working Papers 201624, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:19:y:2000:i:4:p:583-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.