IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v143y2024ics0261560624000676.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy, threshold of profitability and dynamics of private investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • Sodokin, Koffi
  • Kouwonou, Yao
  • Kodjovi Couchoro, Mawuli
  • Amadou, Akilou

Abstract

This study investigates the interactions between optimal monetary policy, investment profitability thresholds, and private sector investment dynamics within the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Analyzing data from 2000 to 2021, it employs advanced econometric models (linear, asymmetric, and threshold effect dynamic panel error correction models) to provide a nuanced understanding of the investment environment in the union. The findings reveal the confluence of low returns and high borrowing costs for private investment. Notably, this study suggests that simply pursuing an expansionary monetary policy does not offer a sufficient solution. Instead, it proposes a more accommodative stance by the Central Bank, featuring lower policy rates, to alleviate the negative impact of high credit costs on private investment and ultimately stimulate economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sodokin, Koffi & Kouwonou, Yao & Kodjovi Couchoro, Mawuli & Amadou, Akilou, 2024. "Monetary policy, threshold of profitability and dynamics of private investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000676
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560624000676
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103080?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter & Pedroni, Peter & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending rates in low-income countries: Heterogeneous panel estimates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 117-131.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Souhir Chlibi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou, 2019. "Computing stock price comovements with a three-regime panel smooth transition error correction model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 331-345, March.
    4. Sun, Rongrong, 2020. "Monetary policy announcements and market interest rates’ response: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Delis, Manthos D. & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2011. "Regulations, competition and bank risk-taking in transition countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 38-48, January.
    6. Philippe Aghion & Robin Burgess & Stephen Redding & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "Entry Liberalization and Inequality in Industrial Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 291-302, 04/05.
    7. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2007. "Reaching out: Access to and use of banking services across countries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 234-266, July.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    12. Fielding, David, 1993. "Determinants of Investment in Kenya and Cote d'Ivoire," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 2(3), pages 299-328, December.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    14. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio, 2022. "Banks, Liquidity Management, and Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 391-454, January.
    15. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilberte Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints and the Cyclicality of R&D Investment: Evidence from Micro Panel data," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754573, HAL.
    16. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    17. M. Hashem Pesaran & Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Heterogeneity and cross section dependence in panel data models: theory and applications introduction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 229-232.
    18. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    19. Issoufou Soumaila, 2017. "The Determinants of Investment Efficiency in West African Economic and Monetary Union (Waemu)," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 51(1), pages 49-61, January-M.
    20. Niepmann, Friederike, 2015. "Banking across borders," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 244-265.
    21. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Askenazy & Nicolas Berman & Gilbert Cette & Laurent Eymard, 2012. "Credit Constraints And The Cyclicality Of R&D Investment: Evidence From France," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1001-1024, October.
    22. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufr??not, & Kimiko Sugimoto & Romain Wolf, 2013. "Reactions to Shocks and Monetary Policy Regimes: Inflation Targeting Versus Flexible Currency Board in Ghana, South Africa and the WAEMU," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1062, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Mr. Alexei P Kireyev, 2015. "How to Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 2015/099, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Di Xiao & Andreas Krause, 2022. "Bank demand for central bank liquidity and its impact on interbank markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 639-679, July.
    26. Dorfman, Robert, 1981. "The Meaning of Internal Rates of Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1011-1021, December.
    27. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    28. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
    29. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
    30. Kremer, Stephanie & Bick, Alexander & Nautz, Dieter, 2009. "Inflation and growth: New evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-036, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    31. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    32. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    33. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    34. Craine, Roger, 1989. "Risky business : The allocation of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 201-218, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2022. "Energy consumption and GDP: a panel data analysis with multi-level cross-sectional dependence," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 128-146.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Osathanunkul, Rossarin & Dumrong, Pasinee & Yamaka, Woraphon & Maneejuk, Paravee, 2023. "The nonlinear impacts of aging labor and government health expenditures on productivity in ASEAN+3 economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 450-470.
    2. Xue, Wen-Jun, 2020. "Financial sector development and growth volatility: An international study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 67-88.
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    4. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    5. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2018. "The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 959-987, May.
    6. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Aliyev, Ruslan & Taskin, Dilvin & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2023. "Oil rents and non-oil economic growth in CIS oil exporters. The role of financial development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Chen, Chaoyi & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2021. "Determinants of renewable energy consumption: Importance of democratic institutions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 75-83.
    8. Mateev, Miroslav & Moudud-Ul-Huq, Syed & Sahyouni, Ahmad & Tariq, Muhammad Usman, 2022. "Capital regulation, competition and risk-taking: Policy implications for banking sector stability in the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Brana, Sophie & Campmas, Alexandra & Lapteacru, Ion, 2019. "(Un)Conventional monetary policy and bank risk-taking: A nonlinear relationship," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 576-593.
    10. Awoa, Paul Awoa & Efogo, Françoise Okah & Ondoa, Henri Atangana, 2023. "Oil dependence and entrepreneurship: Non-linear evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    11. Floro, Danvee & van Roye, Björn, 2017. "Threshold effects of financial stress on monetary policy rules: A panel data analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-620.
    12. Maddah, Majid & Ghaffari Nejad, Amir Hossein & Sargolzaei, Mostafa, 2022. "Natural resources, political competition, and economic growth: An empirical evidence from dynamic panel threshold kink analysis in Iranian provinces," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Ridha Nouira & Mohamed Kouni, 2018. "Optimal Government Size and Economic Growth in Developing and MENA Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Working Papers 1256, Economic Research Forum, revised 15 Nov 2018.
    14. Erdoğan, Seyfettin & Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Gedikli, Ayfer, 2020. "Natural resource abundance, financial development and economic growth: An investigation on Next-11 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Corporate debt and investment: a firm analysis for stressed euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2101, European Central Bank.
    16. Leslie Sheng Shen, 2021. "Global Banking and Firm Financing: A Double Adverse Selection Channel of International Transmission," International Finance Discussion Papers 1325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    18. Liu, Shihua & Padhan, Hemachandra & P., Jithin & Jose, Annmary & Rahut, Dil, 2024. "Do green trade and technology-oriented trade affect economic cycles? Evidence from the Chinese provinces," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    19. Frank Silvio Marzano & Enrico Saltari, 1999. "Modern Theories of Investment Decisions A Critical Assessment," Working Papers 57, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    20. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Internal rate of return; Investment; West Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0261560624000676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.