IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v138y2023ics0261560623001201.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Evgenidis, Anastasios
  • Malliaris, Anastasios

Abstract

This paper examines the factors driving housing price exuberance in the United States, specifically the influence of expansionary monetary policies and the global saving glut. We employ medium scale Bayesian VAR and time-varying VAR models to estimate the effects of monetary policy and global saving glut shocks on US housing bubbles. We find that, prior to the Global Financial Crisis, the impact of the saving glut shock is more enduring, powerful, and rapid in generating housing bubbles compared to monetary policy shocks. However, the recent housing boom that commenced in 2019 demonstrates a different pattern. Our results suggest that both monetary policy and the global saving glut contribute to the increase in house prices. Counterfactual policy experiments validate this conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgenidis, Anastasios & Malliaris, Anastasios, 2023. "House Bubbles, global imbalances and monetary policy in the US," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:138:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623001201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560623001201
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102919?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Taylor, 2012. "Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1017-1032, September.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    5. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    6. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    7. Bracke, Thierry & Fidora, Michael, 2012. "The macro-financial factors behind the crisis: Global liquidity glut or global savings glut?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 185-202.
    8. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    9. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Jinyu & Dong, Dayong & Liang, Chao & Cao, Yang, 2024. "Monetary policy uncertainty and the price bubbles in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Anastasios G. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris & Mark S. Rzepczynski, 2024. "One Man’s Bubble Is Another Man’s Rational Behavior: Comparing Alternative Macroeconomic Hypotheses for the US Housing Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-21, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    2. Benati, Luca, 2021. "Leaning against house prices: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 399-412.
    3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Housing Booms, And Financial (Im)Balances," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 830-860, June.
    4. W. Douglas McMillin & James S. Fackler, 2013. "Bernanke vs. Taylor: A Post Mortem (revised August 2014)," Departmental Working Papers 2013-07, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    5. Ume, Ejindu, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on housing market activity: An assessment using sign restrictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 23-31.
    6. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    7. Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
    8. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.
    9. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    10. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    11. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    12. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    13. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    14. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    15. Arias, Jonas E. & Caldara, Dario & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2019. "The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Pascal Towbin & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2015. "Price Expectations and the U.S. Housing Boom," IMF Working Papers 2015/182, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Groshenny, Nicolas, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation And Unemployment: In Defense Of The Federal Reserve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1311-1329, September.
    18. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.
    19. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House bubbles; Global imbalances; Global saving glut; VAR; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:138:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623001201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.