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The Timeline Estimation of Bubbles: The Case of Real Estate

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  • Frank J. Fabozzi
  • Keli Xiao

Abstract

We develop and then apply a new recursive regression methodology with a two‐direction searching process for initialization. The methodology improves the reliability of existing models when estimating a bubble's timeline. We apply our proposed methodology to estimate bubbles in U.S. home prices as well as in simulated scenarios. Our results confirm the improvement in reliability of the proposed methodology in obtaining consistent estimators with varying samples. Moreover, we verify the presence of bubbles in the U.S. aggregate data and seven of the eight cities in our study prior to the subprime crisis and find evidence of the bubble's reemergence since October 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank J. Fabozzi & Keli Xiao, 2019. "The Timeline Estimation of Bubbles: The Case of Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 564-594, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:47:y:2019:i:2:p:564-594
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.12246
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Xiaoting Dai & Linhai Wu, 2023. "The impact of capitalist profit-seeking behavior by online food delivery platforms on food safety risks and government regulation strategies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Frank J. Fabozzi & Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "Detecting Bubbles in the US and UK Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 469-513, May.
    4. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Huerta-Sanchez, Daniel & Jafarinejad, Mohammad & Kim, Dongshin & Soyeh, Kenneth W., 2020. "Disentangling bubbles in equity REITs," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-367.
    6. Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2021. "Testing for exuberance in house prices using data sampled at different frequencies," Working Paper series 21-13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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