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Crop prices and the individual decision to migrate

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  • Narciso, Gaia

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of commodity prices, in particular rice and coffee, on the decision of migrating at the individual level. As most coffee production is sold by households for exports, we would expect that coffee price shocks would have a direct effect on the probability to migrate. On the other hand, we would anticipate that fluctuations in rice prices have little or no effect on migration decisions, given that rice is mainly produced for household consumption. We test these hypotheses drawing evidence from migration in Viet Nam. We show that the lower the price of coffee, the higher the likelihood of migrating. This evidence seems to suggest that migration acts as a shock-coping strategy. We find that rice prices have no effect on the probability of migrating. We further explore the extent of migrants’ self-selection and show that lower coffee prices increase the migration probability of individuals with lower education.

Suggested Citation

  • Narciso, Gaia, 2020. "Crop prices and the individual decision to migrate," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:91:y:2020:i:c:s0306919219306347
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101812
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coxhead, Ian & Vu, Linh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2016. "Migration in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys," MPRA Paper 70217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Phan, Diep & Coxhead, Ian, 2010. "Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam's transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 100-112, January.
    3. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2019. "Commodity Prices and Intra-Household Labor Allocation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 436-454.
    4. Majlesi, Kaveh & Narciso, Gaia, 2018. "International import competition and the decision to migrate: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 75-87.
    5. Nguyen Thu Phuong & Tran Ngo Thi Minh Tam & Nguyen Thi Nguyet & Remco Oostendorp, 2008. "Determinants and Impacts of Migration in Vietnam," Working Papers 01, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
    6. André Gröger & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 123-153, April.
    7. Gray, Rowena & Narciso, Gaia & Tortorici, Gaspare, 2019. "Globalization, agricultural markets and mass migration: Italy, 1881–1912," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Samuel Bazzi, 2017. "Wealth Heterogeneity and the Income Elasticity of Migration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 219-255, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Price shocks; Coffee;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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