IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v162y2024ics0304405x24001685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating and testing investment-based asset pricing models

Author

Listed:
  • Belo, Frederico
  • Deng, Yao
  • Salomao, Juliana

Abstract

Investment-based asset pricing models typically predict a close link between a firm’s stock return and its characteristics at any point in time. Yet, previous studies have primarily focused on the weaker prediction that this link holds on average, finding substantial empirical support. We show how to incorporate the time-series predictions in the estimation and testing of investment-based models using the generalized method of moments. We find that standard specifications of investment-based models with one physical capital input fail to match the time series properties of stock returns in the data, and discuss the implications of the findings for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Belo, Frederico & Deng, Yao & Salomao, Juliana, 2024. "Estimating and testing investment-based asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X24001685
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103945?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2013. "Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2718-2759.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2000. "Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 1027-1057, October.
    4. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    5. Restoy, Fernando & Rockinger, G Michael, 1994. "On Stock Market Returns and Returns on Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 543-556, June.
    6. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2014. "Growth Opportunities, Technology Shocks, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 675-718, April.
    7. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    8. João F. Gomes & Amir Yaron & Lu Zhang, 2006. "Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1321-1356.
    9. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Santiago Bazdresch, 2014. "Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(1), pages 129-177.
    10. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    11. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    12. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Salomao, Juliana & Vitorino, Maria Ana, 2022. "Decomposing firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 619-639.
    13. Belo, Frederico, 2010. "Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 146-163, March.
    14. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    15. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    16. Xu Cheng & Winston Wei Dou & Zhipeng Liao, 2022. "Macro‐Finance Decoupling: Robust Evaluations of Macro Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 685-713, March.
    17. Andrei S Gonçalves & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Aggregation, Capital Heterogeneity, and the Investment CAPM," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2728-2771.
    18. Janice Eberly & Sergio Rebelo & Nicolas Vincent, 2008. "Investment and Value: A Neoclassical Benchmark," Cahiers de recherche 08-03, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    19. Santiago Bazdresch & R. Jay Kahn & Toni M. Whited, 2018. "Estimating and Testing Dynamic Corporate Finance Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 322-361.
    20. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    22. Hui Chen & Winston Wei Dou & Leonid Kogan, 2024. "Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(2), pages 843-902, April.
    23. Goncalves, Andrei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Aggregation, Capital Heterogeneity, and the Investment CAPM," Working Paper Series 2017-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    24. Peters, Ryan H. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2017. "Intangible capital and the investment-q relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 251-272.
    25. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    26. Massimiliano Croce, Mariano, 2014. "Long-run productivity risk: A new hope for production-based asset pricing?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-31.
    27. Howard Kung & Lukas Schmid, 2015. "Innovation, Growth, and Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 1001-1037, June.
    28. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    29. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    2. Hsu, Yen-Ju & Wang, Yanzhi, 2023. "Technology spillover, corporate investment, and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 238-250.
    3. David, Joel M. & Schmid, Lukas & Zeke, David, 2022. "Risk-adjusted capital allocation and misallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 684-705.
    4. Wang, Qiao & Balvers, Ronald, 2021. "Determinants and predictability of commodity producer returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Lin, Xiaoji, 2012. "Endogenous technological progress and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 411-427.
    6. Jun Li, 2019. "Explaining Momentum and Value Simultaneously," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4239-4260, September.
    7. Frederico Belo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2010. "Cross-sectional Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 16336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Frederico Belo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2013. "A Supply Approach to Valuation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(12), pages 3029-3067.
    10. Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang & Frederico Belo, 2014. "External Equity Financing Costs, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," 2014 Meeting Papers 863, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Erica X. N. Li & Dmitry Livdan & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Anomalies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4301-4334, November.
    12. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Salomao, Juliana & Vitorino, Maria Ana, 2022. "Decomposing firm value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 619-639.
    13. Lin, Qi, 2021. "The q5 model and its consistency with the intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Song, Zhongzhi, 2017. "Capital utilization, market power, and the pricing of investment shocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 447-470.
    15. Huang, Dayong & Wang, Fang, 2009. "Cash, investments and asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2301-2311, December.
    16. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
    17. Pierlauro Lopez, 2018. "A New Keynesian Q Theory and the Link Between Inflation and the Stock Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 85-105, July.
    18. Li, Jun & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2021. "Aggregate expected investment growth and stock market returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 618-638.
    19. Ward, Colin, 2020. "Is the IT revolution over? An asset pricing view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 283-316.
    20. Jun Li & Huijun Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2021. "The expected investment growth premium," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 905-933, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Q-theory; Neoclassical investment; Structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:162:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24001685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.