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When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs

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  • Paul A. Borochin

Abstract

type="main"> I introduce and test a method to identify market expectations about value creation in mergers. Post-announcement market prices reflect beliefs about both merged and standalone firm values, and the likelihood of either outcome. Stock prices alone do not contain sufficient information to identify these latent beliefs. By adding exchange-traded stock option data, I deliver a clear decomposition of observed value change into two parts: 1) value creation and 2) new information about standalone value. Previous research has struggled to disentangle the two. This decomposition provides a strong and practical measure of the market's expectations about value creation in a merger.

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  • Paul A. Borochin, 2014. "When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 445-466, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:43:y:2014:i:2:p:445-466
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    3. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
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    5. Borochin, Paul & Yang, Jie, 2017. "Options, equity risks, and the value of capital structure adjustments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 150-178.
    6. Han, Jianlei & Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Pan, Zheyao (Terry) & Smith, Tom, 2019. "The wealth effects of the announcement of the Australian carbon pricing scheme," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 399-409.
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    9. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    10. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    11. Carolina Salva & Xiqian Zhang, 2022. "Financial versus strategic bidders and underpricing as an acquisition motive," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1830-1862, October.
    12. Paul Borochin & Jie Yang, 2016. "Options, Equity Risks, and the Value of Capital Structure Adjustments," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Konstantinos Konstantaras & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2019. "Is stock liquidity transferred and upgraded in acquisitions? Evidence from liquidity synergies in US freeze-outs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 179-216, November.

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