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Dynamic effects of financial stress on the U.S. real estate market performance

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  • Sum, Vichet

Abstract

Based on the theoretical framework of financial amplification, this study investigates the dynamic effects of financial stress on the performance of the U.S. real estate market proxied by Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) returns in the United States using vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis. Based on the analysis of monthly REIT returns and the monthly changes in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Financial Stress Index spanning 1994–2011, the response of returns on the CRSP Ziman REIT indices and sub-indices becomes negative in the first few months following the spike in financial stress. The Granger-causality tests indicate that financial stress causes the returns on the CRSP Ziman REIT indices and sub-indices to drop. The variance decomposition analyses show that financial stress is relatively more important than the overall stock market in forecasting the errors of the returns on the CRSP Ziman REIT indices and sub-indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Sum, Vichet, 2014. "Dynamic effects of financial stress on the U.S. real estate market performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 80-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:75:y:2014:i:c:p:80-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2014.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    3. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2010. "Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 403-407, May.
    4. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2012-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Vichet Sum, 2013. "Impulse Response Functions and Causality Test of Financial Stress and Stock Market Risk Premiums," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, January.
    6. Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long‐Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153, March.
    7. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Hayet Soltani & Mouna Boujelbène Abbes, 2023. "The Predictive Power of Financial Stress on the Financial Markets Dynamics: Hidden Markov Model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 94-115, March.
    2. Armah, Mohammed & Amewu, Godfred, 2024. "Quantile dependence and asymmetric connectedness between global financial market stress and REIT returns: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    3. Jiawen Luo & Oguzhan Cepni & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Forecasting Multivariate Volatilities with Exogenous Predictors: An Application to Industry Diversification Strategies," Working Papers 202258, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REIT returns; Financial stress; Dynamic effects; Variance decomposition; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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