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Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Hoesli

    (GSEM - Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Aberdeen)

  • Richard Malle

    (LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM], BNP-Paribas)

Abstract

Purpose The article analyzes the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on commercial real estate prices, with a particular focus on European markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors start by highlighting caveats to bear in mind when referring to direct real estate indices. The authors then analyze the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the pandemic, emphasizing differences across property types. For that purpose, the authors use data for both direct and listed real estate and further discuss changes in the main factors affecting commercial real estate pricing. The article then turns to discussing the likely trajectory of commercial real estate prices in the future. Findings The authors report that retail and hospitality properties and to a lesser extent office buildings have been affected the most by COVID-19, while the residential and industrial sectors have been less affected by the crisis. The authors maintain that the future trajectory of prices will vary across sectors and that the type and location of assets will become increasingly important in their valuation. Originality/value This paper provides for a better understanding of the behavior of commercial real estate prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Hoesli & Richard Malle, 2022. "Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19," Post-Print hal-03611776, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03611776
    DOI: 10.1108/JERER-04-2021-0024
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://cnam.hal.science/hal-03611776
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    2. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    3. Duca, John V. & Ling, David C., 2020. "The other (commercial) real estate boom and bust: The effects of risk premia and regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
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    6. Jean‐Christophe Delfim & Martin Hoesli, 2021. "Robust desmoothed real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 75-105, March.
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    8. Robert Johnson, 2000. "Monetary policy and real estate returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 283-293, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Merten, Laura & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2023. "Impacts of parking and accessibility on retail-oriented city centres," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Woei Chyuan Wong & Edie Erman Che Johari & Shazida Jan Mohd Khan & Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & Mohd Yushairi Mat Yusoff & Hafirda Akma Musaddad, 2023. "From Outbreak to Vaccination: An Analysis of the Commercial Property Market Reaction to COVID-19 in Malaysia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 267-298.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; COVID-19; Commercial real estate prices; Office; Retail; Hospitality; G12; G23; R33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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