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Mitigating financial fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages

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  • Shiller, Robert J.
  • Wojakowski, Rafał M.
  • Ebrahim, M. Shahid
  • Shackleton, Mark B.

Abstract

This paper models Continuous Workout Mortgages (CWMs) in an economic environment with refinancings and prepayments. CWMs are home loans whose balance and payments are indexed using a market-observable house price index of the pertaining locality. Our main results include: (a) explicit modelling of repayment and interest-only CWMs; (b) closed form formula for mortgage payment and mortgage balance of a repayment CWM; (c) a closed form formula for the actuarially fair mortgage rate of an interest-only CWM. For repayment CWMs we extend our analysis to include two negotiable parameters: adjustable “workout proportion” and adjustable “workout threshold.” These results are of importance as they not only help in the understanding of the mechanics of CWMs and estimating key contract parameters, but they also provide insight on how to enhance the resilience of the financial architecture and mitigate systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Shiller, Robert J. & Wojakowski, Rafał M. & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Shackleton, Mark B., 2013. "Mitigating financial fragility with Continuous Workout Mortgages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 269-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:85:y:2013:i:c:p:269-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2012.04.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Shiller, Robert J. & Wojakowski, Rafal M. & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Shackleton, Mark B., 2019. "Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient pricing and systemic implications," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 244-274.
    2. Poitras, Geoffrey & Zanotti, Giovanna, 2016. "Mortgage contract design and systemic risk immunization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 320-331.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Scott Robertson, 2020. "Mortgage Contracts and Underwater Default," Papers 2005.03554, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    5. John Linarelli, 2020. "Debt in just societies: A general framework for regulating credit," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(3), pages 409-427, July.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    7. Matteo Benetton & Philippe Bracke & João F Cocco & Nicola Garbarinoifo, 2022. "Housing Consumption and Investment: Evidence from Shared Equity Mortgages," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3525-3573.
    8. Geoffrey Poitras & Giovanna Zanotti, 2018. "Housing Market Bubbles and Mortgage Contract Design: Implications for Mortgage Lenders and Households," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, July.
    9. Hayat Khan, 2015. "Some Implications of Debt versus Equity-Based Financing in the Backdrop of Financial Crises بعض آثار الديون مقابل التمويل القائم على الإنصاف في خلفية الأزمات المالية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 28(1), pages 165-180, January.
    10. Wojakowski, Rafal M. & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Shackleton, Mark B., 2016. "Reducing the impact of real estate foreclosures with Amortizing Participation Mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-74.
    11. Robert J. Shiller & Rafal M. Wojakowski & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Mark B. Shackleton, 2017. "Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing and Systemic Implications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3016, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Karamon, Kadiri & McManus, Douglas & Yannopoulos, Elias, 2016. "Spillover effects of continuous forbearance mortgages," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 95-108.
    13. Shiller, Robert J., 2017. "Economic risks associated with deep change in technology, and their mitigation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 616-624.
    14. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM); Repayment; House price index; Prepayment intensity; Cap and floor on continuous flow;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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