IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v77y2011i3p368-381.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A consolidated model of self-fulfilling expectations and self-destroying expectations in financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Yan
  • Li, Honggang

Abstract

Self-fulfilling expectations, where people's expectations may enable some 'pattern' to arise, and self-destroying expectations, where people's expectations could also induce the arisen 'pattern' to disappear, are two attracting phenomena in financial markets. We hold that these two seemingly conflicting phenomena originally arise from the intertemporal payoff structure of investors and build a consolidated model to systemically explore their underlying mechanisms. Based on individuals' investments, with trend-following and trend-reversing expectation rules, our model exhibits the process in which one expectation rule goes from showing superior performance to being unprofitable, as it is gradually exploited, realized, and taken advantage of. Adding the fundamentalist rule, we find that the fluctuation of fundamentalists' impacts on prices, driven by individuals' real payoffs, is the crucial factor that enables their wished 'pattern' that prices fluctuate around the supposed fundamental value to arise as well as induces this emerging 'pattern' to disappear.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Yan & Li, Honggang, 2011. "A consolidated model of self-fulfilling expectations and self-destroying expectations in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 368-381, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:77:y:2011:i:3:p:368-381
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-2681(10)00225-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2008. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction: The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 353-394, March.
    2. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2009. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. Schmidt, Anatoly B., 2002. "Why technical trading may be successful? A lesson from the agent-based modeling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 185-188.
    4. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27.
    5. Marsili, Matteo, 2001. "Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 93-103.
    6. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1705-1765, August.
    7. Yi-Cheng Zhang, 1999. "Toward a Theory of Marginally Efficient Markets," Papers cond-mat/9901243, arXiv.org.
    8. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
    9. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Minority games and stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 228-233.
    10. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    11. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:4:p:1705-1770 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1999. "Toward a theory of marginally efficient markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 30-44.
    14. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    15. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
    16. Challet, Damien & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1998. "On the minority game: Analytical and numerical studies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 514-532.
    17. Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    18. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    19. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Agliari & Pasquale Commendatore & Ilaria Foroni & Ingrid Kubin, 2014. "Expectations and industry location: a discrete time dynamical analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 3-26, April.
    2. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Figurska Marta & Wisniewski Radoslaw, 2016. "Fundamental Analysis – Possiblity of Application on the Real Estate Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 24(4), pages 35-46, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
    2. Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H.E., 2009. "Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1173-1180.
    3. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2014. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 95-120.
    4. Andreas Krause, 2009. "Evaluating the performance of adapting trading strategies with different memory lengths," Papers 0901.0447, arXiv.org.
    5. Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
    6. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
    8. Didier SORNETTE, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based Models," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-25, Swiss Finance Institute.
    9. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Nonlinear Survey," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    11. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yongjie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2021. "An empirical behavioral order-driven model with price limit rules," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Pietro Dindo & Jan Tuinstra, 2006. "A Behavioral Model for Participation Games with Negative Feedback," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-073/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Vee-Liem Saw & Lock Yue Chew, 2020. "No-boarding buses: Synchronisation for efficiency," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-34, March.
    14. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    15. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    16. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    17. Chen, Fang & Gou, Chengling & Guo, Xiaoqian & Gao, Jieping, 2008. "Prediction of stock markets by the evolutionary mix-game model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3594-3604.
    18. Linde, Jona & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2014. "Strategies and evolution in the minority game: A multi-round strategy experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 77-95.
    19. Tedeschi, Gabriele & Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Berardi, Simone, 2019. "An approach to identifying micro behavior: How banks’ strategies influence financial cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 329-346.
    20. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:77:y:2011:i:3:p:368-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.