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Confirmatory search as a useful heuristic? testing the veracity of entrepreneurial conjectures

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  • Shepherd, Dean A.
  • Haynie, J. Michael
  • McMullen, Jeffery S.

Abstract

Researchers have focused attention on the problematic effects of confirmatory search applied to opportunity evaluations, arguing that a confirmatory strategy almost always leads to poor decisions. The implicit assumption of this research is that confirmatory search cannot conclusively falsify an entrepreneurial conjecture. In this article we focus on circumstances where the search for confirming information (positive test strategy) is a superior strategy for testing the veracity of a conjecture.

Suggested Citation

  • Shepherd, Dean A. & Haynie, J. Michael & McMullen, Jeffery S., 2012. "Confirmatory search as a useful heuristic? testing the veracity of entrepreneurial conjectures," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 637-651.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbvent:v:27:y:2012:i:6:p:637-651
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2011.06.002
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    Cited by:

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    4. Gambardella, Alfonso & Camuffo, Arnaldo & Spina, Chiara, 2020. "Small Changes with Big Impact: Experimental Evidence of a Scientific Approach to the Decision-Making of Entrepreneurial Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 14909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Dean A. Shepherd & Jeffery S. Mcmullen & William Ocasio, 2017. "Is that an opportunity? An attention model of top managers' opportunity beliefs for strategic action," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 626-644, March.
    7. Dean A. Shepherd & Marc Gruber, 2021. "The Lean Startup Framework: Closing the Academic–Practitioner Divide," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 45(5), pages 967-998, September.
    8. Jeffery S. McMullen & Katrina M. Brownell & Joel Adams, 2021. "What Makes an Entrepreneurship Study Entrepreneurial? Toward A Unified Theory of Entrepreneurial Agency," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 45(5), pages 1197-1238, September.
    9. Shepherd, Dean A. & Sattari, Rose & Patzelt, Holger, 2022. "A social model of opportunity development: Building and engaging communities of inquiry," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(1).
    10. Saulo Dubard Barbosa & Brett R. Smith, 2024. "Specifying the role of religion in entrepreneurial action: a cognitive perspective," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1315-1336, April.
    11. Indu Khurana & Daniel J. Lee, 2023. "Gender bias in high stakes pitching: an NLP approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 485-502, February.
    12. Arnaldo Camuffo & Alessandro Cordova & Alfonso Gambardella & Chiara Spina, 2020. "A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 564-586, February.
    13. Alberto Peralta & Luis Rubalcaba, 2021. "How Governance Paradigms and Other Drivers Affect Public Managers’ Use of Innovation Practices. A PLS-SEM Analysis and Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    14. Tang, Jintong, 2016. "Linking personal turbulence and creative behavior: The influence of scanning and search in the entrepreneurial process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 1167-1174.
    15. Pham, Dung & Jones, Paul & Dobson, Stephen & Liñán, Francisco & Viala, Céline, 2021. "Entrepreneurial implementation intention as a tool to moderate the stability of entrepreneurial goal intention: A sensemaking approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 97-105.
    16. Kim, Phillip H. & Longest, Kyle C. & Lippmann, Stephen, 2015. "The tortoise versus the hare: Progress and business viability differences between conventional and leisure-based founders," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 185-204.
    17. Jamie D. Collins & Jeffery S. McMullen & Christopher R. Reutzel, 2016. "Distributive justice, corruption, and entrepreneurial behavior," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 981-1006, December.
    18. Wood, Matthew S. & Williams, David W. & Drover, Will, 2017. "Past as prologue: Entrepreneurial inaction decisions and subsequent action judgments," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 107-127.
    19. Kim, Phillip H. & Li, Mingxiang, 2014. "Injecting demand through spillovers: Foreign direct investment, domestic socio-political conditions, and host-country entrepreneurial activity," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 210-231.

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