IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v126y2021ics0378426621000571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall

Author

Listed:
  • Qin, Xiao
  • Zhou, Chen

Abstract

This paper defines asymptotic marginal expected shortfall (AMES) for banks within a financial system and provides corresponding estimation method based on multivariate extreme value theory. The estimation method does not assume a specific dependence structure among bank equity returns. Both theoretical AMES and the estimator possess additive property and thus can serve as a tool to allocate system-wide risk to individual institutions. We apply the AMES to 30 global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs). We show that the AMES outperforms the MES in predicting extreme losses during extreme systemic events. By taking the AMES as the reference point for allocating systemic risk to individual institutions, we show that an allocation according to simple bank characteristics such as size and individual risk can be imperfect. The allocation unfairness of individual risk or size across all the G-SIFIs has increased since 2008.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chen, 2021. "Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:126:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000571
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621000571
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106099?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    2. Juan-Juan Cai & John H. J. Einmahl & Laurens Haan & Chen Zhou, 2015. "Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall: the mean when a related variable is extreme," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(2), pages 417-442, March.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. Banulescu, Georgiana-Denisa & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona, 2015. "Which are the SIFIs? A Component Expected Shortfall approach to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 575-588.
    5. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    6. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    7. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    8. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2007. "Banking System Stability. A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 133-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Chen Zhou, 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 205-250, December.
    11. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    12. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
    13. Straetmans, Stefan & Chaudhry, Sajid M., 2015. "Tail risk and systemic risk of US and Eurozone financial institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 191-223.
    14. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
    15. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2006. "Credit risk transfer and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 89-111, January.
    16. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
    17. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    18. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    19. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2010. "Regulatory Capital Charges for Too-Connected-to-Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal," IMF Working Papers 2010/098, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    21. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. X. Qin & X. Zhu, 2014. "Too non-traditional to fail? Determinants of systemic risk for BRICs banks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 261-264, March.
    24. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2009. "The systemic importance of financial institutions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    25. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    26. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
    27. Chen Chen & Garud Iyengar & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2013. "An Axiomatic Approach to Systemic Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1373-1388, June.
    28. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    29. Asimit, Alexandru V. & Gerrard, Russell & Hou, Yanxi & Peng, Liang, 2016. "Tail dependence measure for examining financial extreme co-movements," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 194(2), pages 330-348.
    30. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    31. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2010. "Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions," BIS Working Papers 308, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Hartmann, P. & Straetmans, S. & de Vries, C.G., 2010. "Heavy tails and currency crises," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 241-254, March.
    33. Bücher, Axel & Jäschke, Stefan & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "Nonparametric tests for constant tail dependence with an application to energy and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 154-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Sihua & Li, Shaofang & Gu, Qinen, 2023. "Measurement and contagion modelling of systemic risk in China's financial sectors: Evidence for functional data analysis and complex network," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Shaowei Chen & Long Guo & Weike Zhang, 2023. "Financial Risk Measurement and Spatial Spillover Effects Based on an Imported Financial Risk Network: Evidence from Countries along the Belt and Road," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Qin, Xiao & Wang, Ze, 2023. "Share pledge financing network and systemic risks: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Yannick Hoga, 2023. "The Estimation Risk in Extreme Systemic Risk Forecasts," Papers 2304.10349, arXiv.org.
    5. Qicheng Zhao & Zhouwei Wang & Yuping Song, 2024. "Systematic Research on Multi-dimensional and Multiple Correlation Contagion Networks of Extreme Risk in China’s Banking Industry," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1137-1162, August.
    6. Ye, Wuyi & Zhou, Yi & Chen, Pengzhan & Wu, Bin, 2024. "A simulation-based method for estimating systemic risk measures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 313(1), pages 312-324.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao Qin & Chen Zhou, 2013. "Systemic Risk Allocation for Systems with A Small Number of Banks," DNB Working Papers 378, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    4. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    5. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2014. "Assessing the contribution of banks, insurance and other financial services to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-287.
    6. Drakos, Anastassios A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2015. "Bank ownership, financial segments and the measurement of systemic risk: An application of CoVaR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 127-140.
    7. Moore, Kyle & Zhou, Chen, 2014. "The determinants of systemic importance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59289, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Moore, Kyle & Zhou, Chen, 2013. ""Too big to fail" or "Too non-traditional to fail"?: The determinants of banks' systemic importance," MPRA Paper 45589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. M. Zulkifli Salim & Kevin Daly, 2021. "Modelling Systemically Important Banks vis-à-vis the Basel Prudential Guidelines," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    11. Ahelegbey, Daniel Felix & Giudici, Paolo & Mojtahedi, Fatemeh, 2021. "Tail risk measurement in crypto-asset markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    13. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
    14. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
    15. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    16. O. de Bandt & J.-C. Héam & C. Labonne & S. Tavolaro, 2013. "Measuring Systemic Risk in a Post-Crisis World," Débats économiques et financiers 6, Banque de France.
    17. Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea & Arismendi Zambrano, Juan, 2018. "Tail systemic risk and contagion: Evidence from the Brazilian and Latin America banking network," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 164-189.
    18. Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2013. "Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures," Discussion Papers 04/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chunyang, 2019. "Financial structure and determinants of systemic risk contribution," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Systemic risk in European sovereign debt markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-244.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymptotic marginal expected shortfall; Systemically important financial institutions; Multivariate extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:126:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.