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Did the repeated debt ceiling controversies embed default risk in US Treasury securities?

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  • Liu, Pu
  • Shao, Yingying
  • Yeager, Timothy J.

Abstract

We examine whether the financial market charged a default risk premium to US Treasury securities when the US Federal government repeatedly reached the legally binding debt limits between 2002 and 2006. We show that for the first two of the four recurrences since the first episode in 1996, the financial market charged a small default risk premium to the Treasury securities. However, we find no significant evidence of a pricing effect in the last two recurrences. The results suggest that the financial market gradually perceived the budget standoffs as the boy who cried wolf.

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  • Liu, Pu & Shao, Yingying & Yeager, Timothy J., 2009. "Did the repeated debt ceiling controversies embed default risk in US Treasury securities?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1464-1471, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:8:p:1464-1471
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    Cited by:

    1. Dufour, Alfonso & Stancu, Andrei & Varotto, Simone, 2017. "The equity-like behaviour of sovereign bonds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-46.
    2. Kovacs, Tunde & Wang, Yadi, 2024. "Cry wolf and it appears: Debt ceiling debates and new corporate bond issues," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. David Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth Klee, 2023. "Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Debt Limit Impasses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1475-1506, September.
    4. Emily Gallagher & Sean Collins, 2016. "Money Market Funds and the Prospect of a US Treasury Default," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-44, March.
    5. Nippani, Srinivas & Smith, Stanley D., 2010. "The increasing default risk of US Treasury securities due to the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2472-2480, October.
    6. Robert C. MacKay, 2017. "The Impact of Fiscal Stress on Local Government Fiscal Structures: An Event Study of the Orange County Bankruptcy," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 102-124, June.
    7. David B. Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth C. Klee & Cailey Stevens, 2017. "Take it to the Limit : The Debt Ceiling and Treasury Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. David B. Cashin & Erin E. Syron Ferris & Elizabeth C. Klee, 2020. "Treasury Safety, Liquidity, and Money Premium Dynamics: Evidence from Recent Debt Limit Impasses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Srinivas Nippani & Stanley D. Smith, 2009. "The Increasing Default Risk of U.S. Treasuries Securities Due to the Financial Crisis," NFI Working Papers 2010-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

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