IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v127y2021ics0378426621000777.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Momentum life cycle, revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Tsung-Yu
  • Chou, Pin-Huang
  • Hsieh, Chia-Hsun
  • Ghon Rhee, S.

Abstract

The momentum life cycle (MLC) hypothesis proposed by Lee and Swaminathan (2000) is spurious because it is largely driven by multiplying two widely documented effects on momentum and turnover. After controlling for these two effects, what remains is a negative return pattern for late-stage momentum, mostly driven by the higher returns of low-turnover losers. Although the higher returns of low-turnover losers disappear either under a risk adjustment or with the inclusion of NASDAQ stocks, they remain significant during periods of optimism, thus supporting the underreaction theory of momentum proposed by Hong and Stein (2007), whereby turnover proxies for the divergence of opinion among investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Ghon Rhee, S., 2021. "Momentum life cycle, revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:127:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000777
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106119
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621000777
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106119?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoniou, Constantinos & Doukas, John A. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2013. "Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 245-275, February.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    4. Zhi Da & Umit G. Gurun & Mitch Warachka, 2014. "Frog in the Pan: Continuous Information and Momentum," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 2171-2218.
    5. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    6. Thomas J. George & Chuan‐Yang Hwang, 2007. "Long‐Term Return Reversals: Overreaction or Taxes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2865-2896, December.
    7. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    8. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chou, Pin-Huang & Huang, Tsung-Yu & Yang, Hung-Jeh, 2013. "Arbitrage risk and the turnover anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4172-4182.
    11. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    12. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    13. Jennifer Conrad & M. Deniz Yavuzm, 2017. "Momentum and Reversal: Does What Goes Up Always Come Down?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 555-581.
    14. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2006. "Liquidity and Asset Prices," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(4), pages 269-364, February.
    15. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2007. "Disagreement and the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 109-128, Spring.
    16. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    17. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    18. Pavel Bandarchuk & Jens Hilscher, 2013. "Sources of Momentum Profits: Evidence on the Irrelevance of Characteristics," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 809-845.
    19. Grundy, Bruce D & Martin, J Spencer, 2001. "Understanding the Nature of the Risks and the," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 29-78.
    20. Byun, Suk Joon & Lim, Sonya S. & Yun, Sang Hyun, 2016. "Continuing Overreaction and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(6), pages 2015-2046, December.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Andy C.W. Chui & Sheridan Titman & K.C. John Wei, 2010. "Individualism and Momentum around the World," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 361-392, February.
    23. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    24. Wang, Changyun & Chin, Shengtyng, 2004. "Profitability of return and volume-based investment strategies in China's stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 541-564, November.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Gong, Qiang & Liu, Ming & Liu, Qianqiu, 2015. "Momentum is really short-term momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-182.
    27. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    28. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    29. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    30. Brennan, Michael J. & Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "Alternative factor specifications, security characteristics, and the cross-section of expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 345-373, September.
    31. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2012. "Is momentum really momentum?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 429-453.
    32. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    33. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Hong-Yi & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2023. "Revisiting the momentum effect in Taiwan: The role of persistency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    2. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2018. "Equity market momentum: A synthesis of the literature and suggestions for future work," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 291-296.
    3. Chang, Rosita P. & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Nakano, Shinji & Ghon Rhee, S., 2018. "Residual momentum in Japan," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 283-299.
    4. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2019. "Asset growth, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-124.
    5. Weber, Martin & Jacobs, Heiko & Regele, Tobias, 2015. "Expected Skewness and Momentum," CEPR Discussion Papers 10601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Chen, Hong-Yi & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2023. "Revisiting the momentum effect in Taiwan: The role of persistency," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Wu, Yuliang & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2016. "Long-term industry reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-250.
    8. Tobias Wiest, 2023. "Momentum: what do we know 30 years after Jegadeesh and Titman’s seminal paper?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(1), pages 95-114, March.
    9. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    10. Martin H. Schmidt, 2017. "Trading strategies based on past returns: evidence from Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(2), pages 201-256, May.
    11. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia, 2022. "Momentum investing: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(1), pages 87-113, February.
    12. Goetzmann, William N. & Huang, Simon, 2018. "Momentum in Imperial Russia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 579-591.
    13. Bathia, Deven & Bredin, Don, 2018. "Investor sentiment: Does it augment the performance of asset pricing models?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 290-303.
    14. Liu, Chenye & Wu, Ying & Zhu, Dongming, 2022. "Price overreaction to up-limit events and revised momentum strategies in the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    15. Hannah Lea Hühn & Hendrik Scholz, 2018. "Alpha Momentum and Price Momentum," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-28, May.
    16. Khasawneh, Maher & McMillan, David G. & Kambouroudis, Dimos, 2024. "Left-tail risk and UK stock return predictability: Underreaction, overreaction, and arbitrage difficulties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    17. Du, Qianqian & Liang, Dawei & Chen, Zilin & Tu, Jun, 2022. "Concept links and return momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    18. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chao, Ching-Hsiang & Wu, Zhen-Xing, 2021. "Does the turnover effect matter in emerging markets? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Doron Avramov & Guy Kaplanski & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2022. "Postfundamentals Price Drift in Capital Markets: A Regression Regularization Perspective," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7658-7681, October.
    20. Julio Lobao & Joao Meira Fernandes, 2017. "The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing: Implications for Asset Pricing Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(2), pages 349-376, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trading volume; Price momentum; Momentum life cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:127:y:2021:i:c:s0378426621000777. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.