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Long‐Term Return Reversals: Overreaction or Taxes?

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  • THOMAS J. GEORGE
  • CHUAN‐YANG HWANG

Abstract

Long‐term reversals in U.S. stock returns are better explained as the rational reactions of investors to locked‐in capital gains than an irrational overreaction to news. Predictors of returns based on the overreaction hypothesis have no power, while those that measure locked‐in capital gains do, completely subsuming past returns measures that are traditionally used to predict long‐term returns. In data from Hong Kong, where investment income is not taxed, reversals are nonexistent, and returns are not forecastable either by traditional measures or by measures based on the capital gains lock‐in hypothesis that successfully predict U.S. returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. George & Chuan‐Yang Hwang, 2007. "Long‐Term Return Reversals: Overreaction or Taxes?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2865-2896, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:6:p:2865-2896
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01295.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Ye, Qing & Turner, John D., 2014. "The cross-section of stock returns in an early stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-123.
    2. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Osman, Mohamed, 2019. "Picking winners to pick your winners: The momentum effect in commodity risk factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Wu, Yuliang & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2016. "Long-term industry reversals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-250.
    4. Bali, Turan G. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Long-term reversals in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 656-677.
    5. Luis Garcia-Feijoo & Gerald R. Jensen, 2014. "The Monetary Environment And Long-Run Reversals In Stock Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 3-26, February.
    6. Chen, Hong-Yi & Yang, Sharon S., 2020. "Do Investors exaggerate corporate ESG information? Evidence of the ESG momentum effect in the Taiwanese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Yang, Yunlin & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2019. "Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 78-101.
    8. Jones, Steven L. & Yeoman, John C., 2012. "Bias in estimating the systematic risk of extreme performers: Implications for financial analysis, the leverage effect, and long-run reversals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21.
    9. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2021. "Non-parametric momentum based on ranks and signs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 94-109.
    10. Fung, Michael K. & Cheng, Louis T.W. & Shen, Jianfu, 2024. "Do media message receivers asymmetrically react to non-strategic and strategic media coverage? Evidence from Hong Kong," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    11. Boubaker, Sabri & Farag, Hisham & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 153-165.
    12. Lee, King Fuei, 2021. "An Anomaly within an Anomaly: The Halloween Effect in the Long-term Reversal Anomaly," MPRA Paper 110859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sascha Raithel & Manfred Schwaiger, 2015. "The effects of corporate reputation perceptions of the general public on shareholder value," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 945-956, June.
    14. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2020. "Momentum and reversals: Are they really separate phenomena?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    15. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    16. Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
    17. Chen, Tsung-Yu & Chou, Pin-Huang & Hsieh, Chia-Hsun & Ghon Rhee, S., 2021. "Momentum life cycle, revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Agapova, Anna & Volkov, Nikanor, 2021. "Asymmetric tax-induced trading: The effect of capital gains tax changes," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 245-259.
    19. David Yechiam Aharon & Yossi Yagil, 2019. "The Impact of Financial Leverage on the Cost of Equity," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 175-188.
    20. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2021. "The alpha momentum effect in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    21. Zaremba, Adam, 2019. "Price range and the cross-section of expected country and industry returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 174-189.
    22. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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