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Past and future of the labor force in emerging Asian economies

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  • Kim, Jinyoung

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the determinants of past changes in the labor force of 12 emerging Asian countries, and attempt to make projections of the labor force in those countries for the period 2010–2030. Results from our regression analysis of the labor force indicate that the wage earnings elasticity of labor supply is negative, albeit insignificant, for men and significantly positive for women, and it has a significantly positive association with educational level and a negative one with age. We also find that per capita income shows a negative relationship with the labor force in general for younger age groups and older age groups, and more capital-intensive countries have smaller female labor force. Using extrapolation, the paper predicts that the labor force will increase in all 12 countries during the first two decades of the period 2010–2030, but will eventually decline in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. The paper also makes projections of the unemployment rate and the average working hours in those countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jinyoung, 2012. "Past and future of the labor force in emerging Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 87-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:87-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695, Elsevier.
    3. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    5. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling and Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 41-63, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael P. Keane, 2011. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 961-1075, December.
    7. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "Where is India's Growth Headed?," Working Papers 16/159, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Where is India’s Growth Headed?," Working Papers id:8436, eSocialSciences.
    4. Wang, Feng & Liu, Xiying & Nguyen, Tue Anh, 2018. "Evaluating the economic impacts and feasibility of China's energy cap: Based on an Analytic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 114-126.
    5. Elke Loichinger & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2018. "Feminising the workforce in ageing East Asia? The potential of skilled female labour in four advanced economies," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 187-215, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor force; Asian economies; Projection; Population; Labor force participation rate; Unemployment rate; Average working hours;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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