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Physical capital accumulation in Asia 12: Past trends and future projections

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  • Shioji, Etsuro
  • Vu, Tuan Khai

Abstract

The pace of capital accumulation in East Asia has simply been stunning. In this paper, we investigate sources of this fast accumulation and make projections for the future. We estimate a “convergence” equation for physical capital per capita, which is derived from an open economy growth model, using a pooled cross-country, across-decade sample of the entire world. We also conduct projections for the next two decades. We find that an economy with a low level of capital stock per capita tends to experience faster accumulation subsequently. Asian economies have certainly benefited from this “convergence effect”. But on the other hand, other factors such as a low rule of law score and high investment goods prices have worked against them. Our projection shows that, if those economies wish to maintain their current pace of fast capital accumulation, the keys would be to reduce distortions in the domestic market and to improve the quality of institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Shioji, Etsuro & Vu, Tuan Khai, 2012. "Physical capital accumulation in Asia 12: Past trends and future projections," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 138-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:138-149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.011
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    Cited by:

    1. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2012. "The determinants and long-term projections of saving rates in Developing Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 128-137.
    2. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada- Hagiwara, 2013. "Savings and investment," Chapters, in: Hal Hill & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (ed.), Asia Rising, chapter 5, pages 137-153, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Wang, Feng & Liu, Xiying & Nguyen, Tue Anh, 2018. "Evaluating the economic impacts and feasibility of China's energy cap: Based on an Analytic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 114-126.
    4. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital stock; Investment; Asia; Economic growth; Cross country regressions; Projections; Asian economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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