Automatic Inference Of The Contemporaneous Causal Order Of A System Of Equations

When Stephen Perez and I first began our Monte Carlo studies of the efficacy of general-to-specific search methodologies in 1995, we were keenly aware of our limited ability to capture the tacit knowledge of the skilled time-series econometrician operating in the London School of Economics (LSE) tradition (Hoover and Perez, 1999a, 1999b). Econometrics, we believed, was an art, and our algorithm was not intended to replace the artist. David Hendry and Hans-Martin Krolzig's subsequent development of PcGets did not, in fact, eliminate the art of econometrics. Power tools did not eliminate the art of the cabinetmaker but changed where his value added lay and—importantly—made new things possible. PcGets is likewise a new, powerful tool, useful in the hands of a skilled craftsman.I thank Peter Phillips, Selva Demiralp, Stephen Perez, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.