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A multi-layer model for long-term KPI alignment forecasts for the air transportation system

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  • Delgado, Luis
  • Gurtner, Gérald
  • Cook, Andrew
  • Martín, Jorge
  • Cristóbal, Samuel

Abstract

This article presents a new, holistic model for the air traffic management system, built during the Vista project. The model is an agent-driven simulator, featuring various stakeholders such as the Network Manager and airlines. It is a microscopic model based on individual passenger itineraries in Europe during one day of operations. The article focuses on the technical description of the model, including data and calibration issues, and presents selected key results for 2035 and 2050. In particular, we show clear trends regarding emissions, delay reduction, uncertainty, and increasing airline schedule buffers.

Suggested Citation

  • Delgado, Luis & Gurtner, Gérald & Cook, Andrew & Martín, Jorge & Cristóbal, Samuel, 2020. "A multi-layer model for long-term KPI alignment forecasts for the air transportation system," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s0969699720304889
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mazzarisi, Piero & Zaoli, Silvia & Lillo, Fabrizio & Delgado, Luis & Gurtner, Gérald, 2020. "New centrality and causality metrics assessing air traffic network interactions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Adler, Nicole, 2001. "Competition in a deregulated air transportation market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 337-345, March.
    3. Tiziana D'Alfonso & Changmin Jiang & Yulai Wan, 2013. "Airport Pricing, Concession Revenues and Passenger Types," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 47(1), pages 71-89, January.
    4. Adler, Nicole & Forsyth, Peter & Mueller, Juergen & Niemeier, Hans-Martin, 2015. "An economic assessment of airport incentive regulation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 5-15.
    5. Cook, Andrew & Blom, Henk A.P. & Lillo, Fabrizio & Mantegna, Rosario Nunzio & Miccichè, Salvatore & Rivas, Damián & Vázquez, Rafael & Zanin, Massimiliano, 2015. "Applying complexity science to air traffic management," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 149-158.
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    1. Delgado, Luis & Gurtner, Gérald & Mazzarisi, Piero & Zaoli, Silvia & Valput, Damir & Cook, Andrew & Lillo, Fabrizio, 2021. "Network-wide assessment of ATM mechanisms using an agent-based model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

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