IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v89y2020ics0969699720304610.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lijing
  • Wang, Yanlong
  • Chen, Yingchun
  • Pan, Xing
  • Zhang, Wenjin
  • Zhu, Yanzhi

Abstract

Pilot performance reliability is critical to civil air transportation safety. Internal and external factors influencing pilot performance reliability are important elements to estimate human error probability. However, dependencies between these factors, including state dependencies and effect dependencies, are always ignored or only partially considered in most human reliability analysis (HRA) method. This paper attempts to develop a methodology incorporating both state and effect dependencies between contributory factors into HRA for airline pilot tasks based on fuzzy logic and the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM). Anchor points were determined for each common performance condition (CPC) state levels through airline pilot elicitation process and then corresponding state and effect fuzzy sets were constructed for each CPC. The CPC dependency fuzzy inference rules were constructed and transformed with reference to the CPC dependency assessing rule in CREAM. And a cognitive failure probability (CFP) calculation method based on the final CPC effect fuzzy sets and the extended CREAM was proposed. To illustrate the use of the proposed methodology, a case study about commercial airline pilot taxiing task was given. The results demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodology and its capability of representing the ambiguity and fuzziness of expert judgement.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin & Zhu, Yanzhi, 2020. "Methodology for assessing dependencies between factors influencing airline pilot performance reliability: A case of taxiing tasks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s0969699720304610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101877
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699720304610
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101877?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Musharraf, Mashrura & Smith, Jennifer & Khan, Faisal & Veitch, Brian & MacKinnon, Scott, 2016. "Assessing offshore emergency evacuation behavior in a virtual environment using a Bayesian Network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 28-37.
    2. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1041-1060.
    3. Netjasov, Fedja & Janic, Milan, 2008. "A review of research on risk and safety modelling in civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 213-220.
    4. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 2: IDAC performance influencing factors model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1014-1040.
    6. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents. Part 4: IDAC causal model of operator problem-solving response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1061-1075.
    7. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 997-1013.
    8. Luca Podofillini & Vinh Dang & Enrico Zio & Piero Baraldi & Massimo Librizzi, 2010. "Using Expert Models in Human Reliability Analysis—A Dependence Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Logic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(8), pages 1277-1297, August.
    9. Groth, Katrina M. & Mosleh, Ali, 2012. "A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based Human Reliability Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-174.
    10. De Ambroggi, Massimiliano & Trucco, Paolo, 2011. "Modelling and assessment of dependent performance shaping factors through Analytic Network Process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 849-860.
    11. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Jang, Inseok & Hyun Seong, Poong, 2015. "A statistical approach to estimating effects of performance shaping factors on human error probabilities of soft controls," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 378-387.
    12. Bandeira, Michelle Carvalho Galvão Silva Pinto & Correia, Anderson Ribeiro & Martins, Marcelo Ramos, 2018. "General model analysis of aeronautical accidents involving human and organizational factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 137-146.
    13. Chang, Y.H.J. & Mosleh, A., 2007. "Cognitive modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation of operating crew response to complex system accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(8), pages 1076-1101.
    14. Konstandinidou, Myrto & Nivolianitou, Zoe & Kiranoudis, Chris & Markatos, Nikolaos, 2006. "A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(6), pages 706-716.
    15. Barak, Sasan & Dahooei, Jalil Heidary, 2018. "A novel hybrid fuzzy DEA-Fuzzy MADM method for airlines safety evaluation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 134-149.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zarei, Esmaeil & Khan, Faisal & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2021. "Importance of human reliability in process operation: A critical analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Wang, Lijing & Wang, Yanlong & Chen, Yingchun & Pan, Xing & Zhang, Wenjin, 2020. "Performance shaping factors dependence assessment through moderating and mediating effect analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Groth, Katrina M. & Smith, Reuel & Moradi, Ramin, 2019. "A hybrid algorithm for developing third generation HRA methods using simulator data, causal models, and cognitive science," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2021. "CMS-BN: A cognitive modeling and simulation environment for human performance assessment, part 1 — methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Shirley, Rachel Benish & Smidts, Carol & Zhao, Yunfei, 2020. "Development of a quantitative Bayesian network mapping objective factors to subjective performance shaping factor evaluations: An example using student operators in a digital nuclear power plant simul," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. Porthin, Markus & Liinasuo, Marja & Kling, Terhi, 2020. "Effects of digitalization of nuclear power plant control rooms on human reliability analysis – A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Wang, Zengkai & Zeng, Shengkui & Guo, Jianbin & Che, Haiyang, 2021. "A Bayesian network for reliability assessment of man-machine phased-mission system considering the phase dependencies of human cognitive error," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    9. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Li, Jue & Li, Heng & Wang, Fan & Cheng, Andy S.K. & Yang, Xincong & Wang, Hongwei, 2021. "Proactive analysis of construction equipment operators’ hazard perception error based on cognitive modeling and a dynamic Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Di Pasquale, Valentina & Miranda, Salvatore & Iannone, Raffaele & Riemma, Stefano, 2015. "A Simulator for Human Error Probability Analysis (SHERPA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 17-32.
    13. Al-Douri, Ahmad & Levine, Camille S. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    14. Su, Xiaoyan & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Xu, Peida & Deng, Yong, 2014. "Inclusion of task dependence in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 41-55.
    15. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud & van Gelder, Pieter, 2020. "BN-SLIM: A Bayesian Network methodology for human reliability assessment based on Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran & Lau, Nathan & Weinger, Matthew B., 2020. "Multi-source information fusion to assess control room operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    17. Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol, 2019. "A method for systematically developing the knowledge base of reactor operators in nuclear power plants to support cognitive modeling of operator performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 64-77.
    18. Ekanem, Nsimah J. & Mosleh, Ali & Shen, Song-Hua, 2016. "Phoenix – A model-based Human Reliability Analysis methodology: Qualitative Analysis Procedure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 301-315.
    19. Abílio Ramos, M. & López Droguett, E. & Mosleh, A. & Das Chagas Moura, M., 2020. "A human reliability analysis methodology for oil refineries and petrochemical plants operation: Phoenix-PRO qualitative framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    20. Vaurio, Jussi K., 2009. "Human factors, human reliability and risk assessment in license renewal of a nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1818-1826.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:89:y:2020:i:c:s0969699720304610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.