Change in air services at second rank cities

There has been some conflicting analysis of the recent and likely future air services available at second rank cities. On the one hand, the sheer scale of economic activity associated with market demand (allied to the use of new larger aircraft) has maintained concentrations of air services at high ranking global city hubs. On the other, shifts in global production have drawn a wider array of cities, especially those from emerging economies, into global networks. That has been facilitated by the use of smaller long-haul aircraft, which are well suited to market demand in lower ranked cities. The paper explores these alternative views by analysing recent change in airline services at first and second ranked cities as identified by a major urban research project. Using a commercial air services data base, Capstats, the paper assembles and analyses the number of seats provided by airlines at six ranked categories of cities over the period 2005–2010. It finds that there have been some shifts in activity in favour of second ranked cities, but that outcome varies substantially from city to city. These results confirm earlier findings that the link between city size and air service is a complex one. To refine and enhance that insight, the paper suggests analyses of the way the airlines serve different sized cities (as expressed in aircraft type and airline size, for example). Case studies of the change in air services of some cities will also be useful.