IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v37y2021i2p825-837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Brazilian mortality rates due to occupational accidents using autoregressive moving average approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Melchior, Cristiane
  • Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro
  • Guerra, Renata Rojas
  • Rockenbach, Dinei A.

Abstract

We examine the mortality rates due to occupational accidents of the three states in the southern region of Brazil using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), beta autoregressive moving average (βARMA), and Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average (KARMA) models to fit the data sets, considering monthly observations from 2000 to 2017. We compare them to identify the best predictive model for the southern region of Brazil. We also provide descriptive analysis, revealing the victims’ vulnerability characteristics and comparing them between the states. A clear increase was seen in female participation in the labor market, but the number of deaths from occupational accidents did not increase by the same proportion. Moreover, the state of Paraná stood out for having the highest mortality rate from work-related accidents. The fitted ARIMA and βARMA models using a 6-month time frame presented similar accuracy measurements, while KARMA performed the worst.

Suggested Citation

  • Melchior, Cristiane & Zanini, Roselaine Ruviaro & Guerra, Renata Rojas & Rockenbach, Dinei A., 2021. "Forecasting Brazilian mortality rates due to occupational accidents using autoregressive moving average approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 825-837.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:2:p:825-837
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020301515
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.09.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2019. "The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 251-265.
    2. Ed McKenzie, 1985. "An Autoregressive Process for Beta Random Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(8), pages 988-997, August.
    3. Yuan Gao & Han Lin Shang, 2017. "Multivariate Functional Time Series Forecasting: Application to Age-Specific Mortality Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2015. "Forecasting aggregate retail sales: The case of South Africa," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 66-79.
    5. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2012. "Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 145-160.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    8. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    9. Azmat, Ghazala & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2014. "Gender and the labor market: What have we learned from field and lab experiments?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 32-40.
    10. Ibrahim, Rouba & Ye, Han & L’Ecuyer, Pierre & Shen, Haipeng, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting call center arrivals: A literature survey and a case study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 865-874.
    11. Silvia Ferrari & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2004. "Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 799-815.
    12. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Xu, Fang, 2014. "Testing for unit roots in bounded time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 259-272.
    13. Zeileis, Achim & Grothendieck, Gabor, 2005. "zoo: S3 Infrastructure for Regular and Irregular Time Series," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 14(i06).
    14. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    15. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    16. Azmat, Ghazala & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2014. "Gender and the labor market: What have we learned from field and lab experiments?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 32-40.
    17. Andréa Rocha & Francisco Cribari-Neto, 2009. "Beta autoregressive moving average models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 18(3), pages 529-545, November.
    18. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2017. "Grouped multivariate and functional time series forecasting:An application to annuity pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 166-179.
    19. Vinícius T. Scher & Francisco Cribari‐Neto & Guilherme Pumi & Fábio M. Bayer, 2020. "Goodness‐of‐fit tests for βARMA hydrological time series modeling," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Scher, Vinícius T. & Bayer, Fábio M., 2023. "Beta autoregressive moving average model selection with application to modeling and forecasting stored hydroelectric energy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-109.
    2. Palm, Bruna G. & Bayer, Fábio M. & Cintra, Renato J., 2022. "2-D Rayleigh autoregressive moving average model for SAR image modeling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    3. Scher, Vinícius T. & Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Bayer, Fábio M., 2024. "Generalized βARMA model for double bounded time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 721-734.
    4. Nemanja Deretić & Dragan Stanimirović & Mohammed Al Awadh & Nikola Vujanović & Aleksandar Djukić, 2022. "SARIMA Modelling Approach for Forecasting of Traffic Accidents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Zhao, Yuan & Zhang, Weiguo & Gong, Xue & Wang, Chao, 2021. "A novel method for online real-time forecasting of crude oil price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Yu-Chen Zhang & Deng-Kui Si & Bing Zhao, 2020. "The Convergence of Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Emissions Per Capita in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-33, February.
    3. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    5. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2015. "Trends and convergence in global housing markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-112.
    6. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Forecast reconciliation: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
    8. repec:jss:jstsof:32:i02 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, January.
    10. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2015. "How stable is the export-led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 229-235.
    11. Onur zdemir, 2019. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach to the Income Inequality and Financial Liberalization Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 1-15.
    12. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional proportion: A multiplicative-error model for (0,1)-valued time series," MPRA Paper 110954, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Dec 2021.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    14. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2008. "Cointegration and dynamic linkages of international stock markets: an emerging market perspective," MPRA Paper 26986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Cribari-Neto, Francisco & Scher, Vinícius T. & Bayer, Fábio M., 2023. "Beta autoregressive moving average model selection with application to modeling and forecasting stored hydroelectric energy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 98-109.
    16. Henry, Olan T. & Shields, Kalvinder, 2004. "Is there a unit root in inflation?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 481-500, September.
    17. Abdelhakim Aknouche & Stefanos Dimitrakopoulos, 2023. "Autoregressive conditional proportion: A multiplicative‐error model for (0,1)‐valued time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 393-417, July.
    18. Rodrigues, Luciano & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2017. "Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-331.
    19. Nafeesa Yunus, 2009. "Increasing Convergence Between U.S. and International Securitized Property Markets: Evidence Based on Cointegration Tests," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 383-411, September.
    20. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    21. José de Sousa & Guillaume Hollard, 2021. "From Micro to Macro Gender Differences: Evidence from Field Tournaments," Post-Print hal-03389151, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:2:p:825-837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.