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Exponentially weighted information criteria for selecting among forecasting models

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  • Taylor, James W.

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  • Taylor, James W., 2008. "Exponentially weighted information criteria for selecting among forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 513-524.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:3:p:513-524
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    1. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    2. Agostinelli, Claudio, 2002. "Robust model selection in regression via weighted likelihood methodology," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 289-300, February.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002. "A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
    4. Ronchetti, Elvezio, 1985. "Robust model selection in regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 21-23, February.
    5. Noah Gans & Ger Koole & Avishai Mandelbaum, 2003. "Telephone Call Centers: Tutorial, Review, and Research Prospects," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 79-141, September.
    6. Billah, Baki & King, Maxwell L. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 239-247.
    7. Gardner, Everette Jr., 2006. "Exponential smoothing: The state of the art--Part II," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 637-666.
    8. Jianqing Fan & Juan Gu, 2003. "Semiparametric estimation of Value at Risk," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 261-290, December.
    9. I. Gijbels & A. Pope & M. P. Wand, 1999. "Understanding exponential smoothing via kernel regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(1), pages 39-50.
    10. Md B. Billah & R.J. Hyndman & A.B. Koehler, 2003. "Empirical Information Criteria for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Taylor, James W., 2007. "Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 154-167, April.
    12. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
    13. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    14. Guermat, Cherif & Harris, Richard D. F., 2002. "Forecasting value at risk allowing for time variation in the variance and kurtosis of portfolio returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 409-419.
    15. Lawrence Brown & Noah Gans & Avishai Mandelbaum & Anat Sakov & Haipeng Shen & Sergey Zeltyn & Linda Zhao, 2005. "Statistical Analysis of a Telephone Call Center: A Queueing-Science Perspective," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 36-50, March.
    16. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    2. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451.
    3. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251, April.
    4. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
    5. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    6. Andrea Bastianin & Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera, 2011. "Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1109, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
    7. Petropoulos, Fotios & Makridakis, Spyros & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2014. "‘Horses for Courses’ in demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 152-163.
    8. Fotios Petropoulos & Enno Siemsen, 2023. "Forecast Selection and Representativeness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2672-2690, May.
    9. Chew Lian Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2012. "A latent variable approach to forecasting the unemployment rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 229-244, April.
    10. José V. Segura-Heras & José D. Bermúdez & Ana Corberán-Vallet & Enriqueta Vercher, 2022. "Analysis of Weighting Strategies for Improving the Accuracy of Combined Forecasts," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Chew Lian Chua, 2013. "A Multivariate GARCH Model Incorporating the Direct and Indirect Transmission of Shocks," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 244-271, February.
    12. Kolassa, Stephan, 2011. "Combining exponential smoothing forecasts using Akaike weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 238-251.
    13. Alessandra Amendola & Vincenzo Candila & Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2024. "Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts," Papers 2406.06235, arXiv.org.

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