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Sentiment and trading decisions in an ambiguous environment: A study on cryptocurrency traders

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  • Bowden, James
  • Gemayel, Roland

Abstract

The role of public sentiment in traders’ decision-making is potentially more pronounced in crypto-asset markets, given a lack of quantifiable financial fundamental information and historical precedent for pricing behaviour. Using a data set of over two million transactions executed on a cryptocurrency exchange, we test the extent to which sentiment conveyed within cryptocurrency communities on Reddit impacts upon the performance, deposit and withdrawal behaviour, and position exposure of cryptocurrency traders. Our evidence supports the notion that sentiment plays a role in the investment decision-making process. Traders tend to realise positive returns when sentiment is bullish. Moreover, positive changes in the level of bullishness lead to traders executing larger trades, and a higher probability of depositing and withdrawing funds. Measures such as the degree of consensus within the online crowd, readership size and contributor reputation produce less compelling results, but offer some insights into Reddit community dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowden, James & Gemayel, Roland, 2022. "Sentiment and trading decisions in an ambiguous environment: A study on cryptocurrency traders," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:80:y:2022:i:c:s1042443122000981
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101622
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    3. Osman, Myriam Ben & Urom, Christian & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2024. "Economic sentiment and the cryptocurrency market in the post-COVID-19 era," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sentiment; Cryptocurrency; Decision making; Retail traders; Behavioural finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G50 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - General

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