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Do financial markets reward government spending efficiency?

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  • Afonso, António
  • Tovar Jalles, João
  • Venâncio, Ana

Abstract

We provide a novel set of government spending efficiency scores for the OECD countries and then assess to what extent capital markets perceive government efficiency increases (decreases) as part of the determinants of sovereign rating decisions. Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered response models to estimate the response of sovereign ratings to changes in efficiency scores. Covering 35 OECD countries over the period 2007–2020, we find that increased public spending efficiency is rewarded by financial markets via higher sovereign debt ratings. In addition, higher inflation and government indebtedness lead to sovereign rating downgrades, while higher foreign reserves contribute to rating upgrades.

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  • Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João & Venâncio, Ana, 2022. "Do financial markets reward government spending efficiency?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s1042443122000014
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101505
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves, 2022. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2022/0226, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Amat Adarov & Ugo Panizza, 2024. "Public Investment Quality and its Implications for Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability," IHEID Working Papers 12-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government Spending and Tax Revenue Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10424, CESifo.
    4. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2023. "Tax structure and public sector efficiency: new evidence for developing countries," Working Papers REM 2023/0291, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2024. "A tale of government spending efficiency and trust in the state," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 89-118, July.
    6. António Afonso & José Alves & Najat Bazah, 2024. "Public Sector Efficiency and the Functions of the Government," Working Papers REM 2024/0357, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João & Venâncio, Ana, 2024. "Fiscal decentralization and public sector efficiency: Do natural disasters matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending efficiency; DEA; Panel analysis; Ordered probit (logit); Sovereign ratings; Rating agencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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