IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v64y2020ics1042443119302690.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The rating spillover from banks to sovereigns: An empirical investigation across the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Haoshen
  • Prokop, Jörg
  • Shi, Yukun
  • Trautwein, Hans-Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates how changes in European banks’ credit risk affect their host countries’ sovereign risk by exploring bank-to-sovereign rating spillover effects. Using credit rating data from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch for the period ranging from 2002 to 2016, we identify both positive and negative bank-to-sovereign spillover effects, and find the negative rating spillover effect to be more pronounced than the positive one. Further, we provide evidence on differences among the three rating agencies in terms of the occurrence of positive spillovers, and the degree of negative spillovers. Our results are robust to the changes in model specifications with respect to the currency type of ratings, the structure of regression models, and the approach used to link bank and sovereign ratings. Overall, our analysis sheds new light on how information related to systemic risks emanating from the banking sector affects domestic sovereign credit ratings, and thereby complements previous research focusing on the opposite sovereign-to-bank rating transmission channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Shi, Yukun & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2020. "The rating spillover from banks to sovereigns: An empirical investigation across the European Union," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s1042443119302690
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443119302690
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.101161?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Angelini & Giuseppe Grande & Fabio Panetta, 2014. "The negative feedback loop between banks and sovereigns," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 213, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Stefano Caselli & Gino Gandolfi & Maria Gaia Soana, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Rating News on European Banks," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 142-167, January.
    3. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
    4. Oehmke, Martin & Zawadowski, Adam, 2016. "The anatomy of the CDS market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118964, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    6. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    7. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.
    8. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    9. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    10. Klusak, Patrycja & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2017. "Does the disclosure of unsolicited sovereign rating status affect bank ratings?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 194-210.
    11. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    12. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    13. Prati, Alessandro & Schindler, Martin & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2012. "Who benefits from capital account liberalization? Evidence from firm-level credit ratings data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1649-1673.
    14. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    15. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    16. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym & Huong Vu, 2017. "Differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals during the European crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(10), pages 859-884, August.
    17. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    18. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    19. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain & Vu, Tuyet Nhung, 2014. "The sovereign-bank rating channel and rating agencies' downgrades during the European debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 235-257.
    20. Martin Oehmke & Adam Zawadowski, 2017. "The Anatomy of the CDS Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 80-119.
    21. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen & John E. Burnett, 2017. "An Empirical Study of International Spillover of Sovereign Risk to Bank Credit Risk," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 281-302, May.
    22. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    23. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Sovereign-bank linkages: Quantifying directional intensity of risk transfers in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 137-164.
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    25. Bhanot, Karan & Burns, Natasha & Hunter, Delroy & Williams, Michael, 2014. "News spillovers from the Greek debt crisis: Impact on the Eurozone financial sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 51-63.
    26. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
    27. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "Rating agencies’ signals during the European sovereign debt crisis: Market impact and spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 144-162.
    28. Heitor Almeida & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira & Felipe Restrepo, 2017. "The Real Effects of Credit Ratings: The Sovereign Ceiling Channel," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 249-290, February.
    29. Merler, S. & Pisani-Ferry, J., 2012. "Hazardous tango: sovereign-bank interdependence and financial stability in the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 201-210, April.
    30. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
    31. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2015. "The credit signals that matter most for sovereign bond spreads with split rating," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 174-191.
    32. Cantor, Richard & Packer, Frank, 1997. "Differences of opinion and selection bias in the credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1395-1417, October.
    33. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Martien Lamers & Thomas Present & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2023. "Does BRRD mitigate the bank-to-sovereign risk channel?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1060, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2022. "Transnational spillover effects of European sovereign rating signals on bank stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-182.
    2. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Schertler, Andrea & Moch, Nils, 2021. "Bank foreign assets, government support and international spillover effects of sovereign rating events on bank stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    5. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2015. "Does sovereign creditworthiness affect bank valuations in emerging markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 113-129.
    6. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah, 2023. "To what extent do sovereign rating actions affect global equity market sectors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-261.
    7. Riaz, Yasir & Faff, Robert & Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & Shahab, Yasir, 2023. "Behavioral implications of sovereign ceiling doctrine for the access to credit by firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain & Vu, Tuyet Nhung, 2014. "The sovereign-bank rating channel and rating agencies' downgrades during the European debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 235-257.
    9. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Singh, Manish K. & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2019. "The sovereign-bank nexus in peripheral euro area: Further evidence from contingent claims analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-26.
    10. Tran, Yen & Vu, Huong & Klusak, Patrycja & Kraemer, Moritz & Hoang, Tri, 2021. "Sovereign credit ratings during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Lidija Lovreta & Joaquín López Pascual, 2020. "Structural breaks in the interaction between bank and sovereign default risk," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 531-559, December.
    12. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2020. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the Euro Area," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Kräussl, Roman & Lehnert, Thorsten & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2016. "The European sovereign debt crisis: What have we learned?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 363-373.
    14. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Sanket Mohapatra & Manabu Nose & Dilip Ratha, 2018. "Determinants of the distance between sovereign credit ratings and sub-sovereign bond ratings: Evidence from emerging markets and developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 934-956, February.
    16. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Raymond, Hélène & Rharrabti, Houda, 2017. "The impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on banks stocks. Some evidence of shift contagion in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-37.
    17. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 99-112.
    18. Mahir Binici & Michael M Hutchison & Evan Weicheng Miao, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies discredited? Measuring market price effects from agency sovereign debt announcements," BIS Working Papers 704, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Jack Bekooij & Jon Frost & Remco van der Molen & Krzysztof Muzalewski, 2016. "Hazardous tango: Sovereign-bank interdependencies across countries and time," DNB Working Papers 541, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    20. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan, 2018. "Avoiding the fall into the loop: Isolating the transmission of bank-to-sovereign distress in the euro area and its drivers," IWH Discussion Papers 19/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank rating; European sovereign debt crisis; Sovereign rating; Spillover effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s1042443119302690. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.