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Does sovereign creditworthiness affect bank valuations in emerging markets?

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  • Williams, Gwion
  • Alsakka, Rasha
  • ap Gwilym, Owain

Abstract

We analyse the impact of sovereign rating actions by S&P, Moody's and Fitch on bank valuations in emerging markets. We find strong evidence of a rating channel for the transmission of sovereign risk to bank valuations. Collateral and guarantee channels play modest roles, but are more relevant to countries that experienced positive actions. Positive sovereign actions by S&P have the strongest impact on bank valuations. Both negative and positive new rating information, outlook and watch actions are associated with strong market impact. The findings identify clear evidence of links between emerging market governments’ external credit standing and banks’ market valuation.

Suggested Citation

  • Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2015. "Does sovereign creditworthiness affect bank valuations in emerging markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 113-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:36:y:2015:i:c:p:113-129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.02.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Klusak, Patrycja & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2017. "Does the disclosure of unsolicited sovereign rating status affect bank ratings?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 194-210.
    3. Riaz, Yasir & Faff, Robert & Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & Shahab, Yasir, 2023. "Behavioral implications of sovereign ceiling doctrine for the access to credit by firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Altdörfer, Marc & De las Salas Vega, Carlos A. & Guettler, Andre & Löffler, Gunter, 2019. "The case for a European rating agency: Evidence from the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.
    6. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Qureshi, Anum, 2022. "Impact of sovereign credit ratings on systemic risk and the moderating role of regulatory reforms: An international investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Cuadros-Solas, Pedro Jesús & Salvador Muñoz, Carlos, 2022. "Disentangling the sources of sovereign rating adjustments: An examination of changes in rating policies following the GFC," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2022. "Transnational spillover effects of European sovereign rating signals on bank stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-182.
    9. He, Jianan, 2022. "Factors explaining capital market reactions during corporate, sovereign, and pandemic events," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 134150, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    10. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 99-112.
    11. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne, 2018. "How do sovereign credit ratings help to financially develop low-developed countries?," ECMI Papers 13956, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign rating actions; Bank valuations; Outlook/watch signals; Rating channel; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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