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Market risk forecasting for high dimensional portfolios via factor copulas with GAS dynamics

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  • Bartels, Mariana
  • Ziegelmann, Flavio A.

Abstract

In this paper we propose forecasting market risk measures, such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), for large dimensional portfolios via copula modeling. For that we compare several high dimensional copula models, from naive ones to complex factor copulas, which are able to simultaneously tackle the curse of dimensionality and introduce a high level of complexity into the model. We explore both static and dynamic copula fitting. In the dynamic case we allow different levels of flexibility for the dependence parameters which are driven by a GAS (Generalized Autoregressive Scores) model, in the spirit of Oh and Patton (2015). Our empirical results, for assets negotiated at Brazilian BOVESPA stock market from January, 2008 to December, 2014, suggest that, compared to the other copula models, the GAS dynamic factor copula approach has a superior performance in terms of AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) and a non-inferior performance with respect to VaR and ES forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartels, Mariana & Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2016. "Market risk forecasting for high dimensional portfolios via factor copulas with GAS dynamics," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 66-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:70:y:2016:i:c:p:66-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.06.002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jianxu Liu & Quanrui Song & Yang Qi & Sanzidur Rahman & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2020. "Measurement of Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets and Its Application in Forecasting Trading Decisions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Gavronski, Pedro Gerhardt & Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2021. "Measuring systemic risk via GAS models and extreme value theory: Revisiting the 2007 financial crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. Marcela de Marillac Carvalho & Luiz Otávio de Oliveira Pala & Gabriel Rodrigo Gomes Pessanha & Thelma Sáfadi, 2021. "Asymmetric dependence of intraday frequency components in the Brazilian stock market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Jiang, Kunliang & Ye, Wuyi, 2022. "Does the asymmetric dependence volatility affect risk spillovers between the crude oil market and BRICS stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Cyril Bénézet & Emmanuel Gobet & Rodrigo Targino, 2023. "Transform MCMC Schemes for Sampling Intractable Factor Copula Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, March.

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