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Modeling dependencies in claims reserving with GEE

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  • Hudecová, Šárka
  • Pešta, Michal

Abstract

A common approach to the claims reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM), where the claims in different origin and development years are assumed to be independent variables. If this is violated, the classical techniques may provide incorrect predictions of the claims reserves or even misleading estimates of the prediction error.

Suggested Citation

  • Hudecová, Šárka & Pešta, Michal, 2013. "Modeling dependencies in claims reserving with GEE," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 786-794.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:3:p:786-794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.09.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. England, Peter & Verrall, Richard, 1999. "Analytic and bootstrap estimates of prediction errors in claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 281-293, December.
    2. Mack, Thomas, 1991. "A Simple Parametric Model for Rating Automobile Insurance or Estimating IBNR Claims Reserves," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 93-109, April.
    3. Cheng, Guang & Yu, Zhuqing & Huang, Jianhua Z., 2013. "The cluster bootstrap consistency in generalized estimating equations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 33-47.
    4. Mack, Thomas, 1993. "Distribution-free Calculation of the Standard Error of Chain Ladder Reserve Estimates," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 213-225, November.
    5. Antonio, Katrien & Beirlant, Jan, 2007. "Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 58-76, January.
    6. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Verrall, R. J., 1991. "On the estimation of reserves from loglinear models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 75-80, March.
    8. Björkwall, Susanna & Hössjer, Ola & Ohlsson, Esbjörn & Verrall, Richard, 2011. "A generalized linear model with smoothing effects for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 27-37, July.
    9. England, P.D. & Verrall, R.J., 2002. "Stochastic Claims Reserving in General Insurance," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 443-518, August.
    10. Pešta, Michal & Hudecová, Šárka, 2012. "Asymptotic consistency and inconsistency of the chain ladder," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 472-479.
    11. Taylor, G. C. & Ashe, F. R., 1983. "Second moments of estimates of outstanding claims," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 37-61, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pešta, Michal & Okhrin, Ostap, 2014. "Conditional least squares and copulae in claims reserving for a single line of business," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 28-37.
    2. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2018. "Dynamic and granular loss reserving with copulae," Papers 1801.01792, arXiv.org.
    3. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2019. "Infinitely Stochastic Micro Forecasting," Papers 1908.10636, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IM10; IM20; IM40; Claims reserving; Dependency modeling; Generalized estimating equations; Model selection criterion; Mean square error estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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