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Pricing and simulations of catastrophe bonds

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  • Nowak, Piotr
  • Romaniuk, Maciej

Abstract

The increasing number of natural catastrophes like floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes not only causes many victims, but also leads to severe production, infrastructure, and individual property losses. Classic insurance mechanisms may be inadequate for dealing with such losses because of the dependencies that exist, inter alia, between the sources of the losses, the huge values of claims, and problems with adverse selection and moral hazard. To cope with the dramatic consequences of extreme events, new financial and insurance instruments are required. One example of a catastrophe-linked security is the catastrophe bond (cat bond), also known as the Act-of-God bond. In this paper we price some catastrophe bonds. We apply models of the risk-free spot interest rate under the assumption that the occurrence of the catastrophe is independent of financial market behavior. We then use Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the numerical properties of the pricing formulas thus obtained. We make a twofold contribution to the literature of catastrophe bond pricing. First, we prove a general pricing formula, which can be applied to cat bonds with different payoff functions under the assumption of different models of the risk-free spot interest rate. Second, we price some new types of cat bonds with interest rate dynamics described by the CIR and the Hull–White model.

Suggested Citation

  • Nowak, Piotr & Romaniuk, Maciej, 2013. "Pricing and simulations of catastrophe bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 18-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:52:y:2013:i:1:p:18-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2012.10.006
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    Cited by:

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    3. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai & Anne-Sophie Charest, 2017. "CAT Bond Spreads Via HARA Utility and Nonparametric Tests," Working Papers 2017-002, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    4. Shao, Jia & Papaioannou, Apostolos D. & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2017. "Pricing and simulating catastrophe risk bonds in a Markov-dependent environment," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 309(C), pages 68-84.
    5. Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Burnecki, Krzysztof, 2019. "Modelling of left-truncated heavy-tailed data with application to catastrophe bond pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 498-513.
    6. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Papers 1610.09875, arXiv.org.
    7. Jing Liu & Huan Zhang, 2017. "Asymptotic Estimates for the One-Year Ruin Probability under Risky Investments," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-11, May.
    8. Oleg Kolesnikov & Alexander Markov & Daulet Smagulov & Sergejs Solovjovs, 2019. "Cyber bonds and their pricing models," Papers 1911.06698, arXiv.org.
    9. Frédéric Godin & Van Son Lai & Denis-Alexandre Trottier, 2019. "A general class of distortion operators for pricing contingent claims with applications to CAT bonds," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2019(7), pages 558-584, August.
    10. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Palmowski, Zbigniew, 2019. "Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds — The case for equity conversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 238-254.
    11. Pérez-Fructuoso, María José, 2017. "Tarificación de bonos sobre catástrofes (cat bonds) con desencadenantes de índices de pérdidas. Modelación mediante un proceso de Ornstein-Uhlenbeck || Pricing Loss Index Triggered Cat Bonds. An Ornst," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 24(1), pages 340-361, Diciembre.
    12. Lorilee A. Medders & Steven L. Schwarcz, 2022. "Securitizing pandemic‐risk insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 551-583, December.
    13. Jan Baldeaux & Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2015. "A Hybrid Model for Pricing and Hedging of Long-dated Bonds," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 366-398, September.
    14. Sukono & Hafizan Juahir & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Igif Gimin Prihanto, 2022. "Application of Compound Poisson Process in Pricing Catastrophe Bonds: A Systematic Literature Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Han-Bin KANG & Hsuling CHANG & Tsangyao CHANG, 2022. "Catastrophe Reinsurance Pricing -Modification of Dynamic Asset-Liability Management," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    16. Krzysztof Burnecki & Mario Nicoló Giuricich, 2017. "Stable Weak Approximation at Work in Index-Linked Catastrophe Bond Pricing," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Raluca Maran, 2023. "Drivers of sovereign catastrophe bond issuance: an empirical analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Têtu Alexandre & Lai Van Son & Soumaré Issouf & Gendron Michel, 2015. "Hedging Flood Losses Using Cat Bonds," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 149-184, July.
    19. Loretta Mastroeni & Alessandro Mazzoccoli & Maurizio Naldi, 2022. "Pricing Cat Bonds for Cloud Service Failures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Ben Ammar, Semir & Braun, Alexander & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Alternative Risk Transfer and Insurance-Linked Securities: Trends, Challenges and New Market Opportunities," I.VW HSG Schriftenreihe, University of St.Gallen, Institute of Insurance Economics (I.VW-HSG), volume 56, number 56.
    21. Min Zheng, 2015. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behavior in Insurance-Linked Securities," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-12, March.

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